The Weekly View: Europe� What If?
Comment of the Day

November 16 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

The Weekly View: Europe� What If?

My thanks to Rod Smyth, Bill Ryder and Ken Liu for their excellent timing letter. Here is a brief sample:
A broad market consensus believes, as do we, that a collapse in core Europe's sovereign bonds, and thus Europe's banking system, presents a systemic risk. This leads us to the conclusion that the ECB will ultimately overcome its differences and become the buyer of last resort for sovereign debt. We agree, and further believe that if the ECB joins the Fed and the Bank of England in providing 'quantitative easing' support for financial markets it will ignite a market rally. But what if we are wrong and the ECB sticks to its single mandate to fight inflation, abandoning it only after the market falls substantially lower? There has been a great deal of research on the European issue, but the writers keep coming to the same basic conclusions:

David Fuller's view Many of us feel that we have read and talked about European sovereign debt problem for long enough and would welcome a change of emphasis. Unfortunately, Europe remains the focal point for investors' concerns. Consequently, this subject is likely to dominate headlines and therefore investor sentiment for a while longer. The Weekly View provides a good summary of "basic conclusions" and I commend this section to you.

I think the ECB does need to become the lender of last resort, and this means quantitative easing (QE) although no central bank uses that term. This may require a temporary change in the ECB's mandate, sanctioned by Germany. Alternatively, they could say that they were concentrating on price stability by addressing the problem of deflation.

Meanwhile, it will not have escaped subscriber's attention that many of the best performing shares are leading multinational companies which are also dividend aristocrats. They are a preferred Fullermoney secular theme, which Eoin has often reviewed. Here are some of the links:

S&P Pan Asian - Canadian - European - USA S&P100 - S&P 500 & S&P Europe 350.


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