The Weekly View: Responding to Operation Twist
My thanks to Rod Smyth, Bill Ryder and Ken Liu of RiverFront Investment Group for their ever-interesting letter. Here is a brief sample:
US nonfinancial corporations' balance sheets remain in good shape, but business and economic uncertainties are stifling growth. Nonfinancial corporate cash balances and liquid assets are at record highs on an absolute basis ($2 trillion) and relative to net worth (13.6%), while as a percentage total assets (also coincidentally at 13.6%) are nearing the highest levels since 1984. Meanwhile, nonfinancial corporations' net interest payments as a percentage of cash flow are the lowest since the 1950s, effective tax rates are near record lows, and profit margins are near the highs.
David Fuller's view Most big-cap non financial US companies went into survival mode in 2008. Consequently, their balance sheets are the antithesis of the US government's, as I have frequently mentioned. They have also been very successful in developing overseas markets for their products and services, not least in Asia. Eoin has reviewed these companies on a number of occasions in recent months, not least recently.
Slower global GDP growth is currently a headwind for corporate profits but we continue to like many US multinationals leveraged to the Asian-led global economy. In terms of selection and timing, relative chart performance is often the best arbiter of quality, outlook and trend momentum.