Most of the conditions for recovery remain in place, but the structural headwinds from housing and private sector deleveraging, combined with the eventual need for government spending cuts and tax increases leads us to expect slow growth at best. At worst, a return to recession in Europe thwarts the recovery in the US. Europe's debt crisis and the decision by almost all countries there to reduce government spending and raise taxes worry us. Thus we have all but eliminated exposure to Europe in our portfolios, except for the UK. We are focusing equity on high quality global franchise businesses able to take advantage of growth in Asia and Latin America. We are also investing directly in those regions through our overweight allocation to emerging markets.

David Fuller's view Subscribers may recall studies previously mentioned by Fullermoney covering credit crises over the last 100 years or more. They show that it takes approximately five to seven years, on average, for a country to recover from a credit crisis recession. Therefore, and depending on your starting point - I suggest somewhere between 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009 - we have just entered the third year or are only completing the second year of this lengthy deleveraging process. Also, since we are talking about regions, rather than a country, the convalescence may take somewhat longer, not least in the worst affected regions of Europe, known as the PIIGS.

For the most recent close parallel, think of the Asian Financial Crisis which commenced in 1997. It was not until 2003 that stock markets in that often dynamic economic region broke decisively up out of their broad trading ranges. Thailand is an example.

Fullermoney maintains that there are more attractive investment regions than the West. However, the latter is not without some interesting prospects, thanks to globalisation.

Many dynamic Fullermoney theme companies, not least miners, are listed in the UK and USA markets, not to mention Canada. Also, we continue to like multinational companies in Europe and the USA which are leveraged to Asian-led economic growth. We particularly like the dividend 'aristocrats' among that list. For these equities, it is a case of strong companies, weak economies. There are some consolations for that latter handicap, mainly soft currencies in which overseas earnings are consolidated.