The Weekly View: Why We Remain Underweight Europe
My thanks to Rod Smyth, Bill Ryder and Ken Liu of RiverFront
for their ever-interesting
investment letter. Here is the opening:
We remain highly selective in our willingness to invest in Continental Europe. While we recognize that Europe appears cheap relative to global equity markets, the potential for continued economic and banking problems, coupled with the absence of a plan for growth, makes us worried that Europe may be a 'value trap'. By this we mean that earnings, especially in the banking sector, may not reflect the risks. If efforts at stemming Europe's sovereign debt crises fail, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates European banks' balance sheets could shrink by $2.6 trillion, which "could do serious damage to asset prices, credit supply, and economic activity in Europe and beyond," according to the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report released last week. Complicating Europe's problems and adding to uncertainty globally are upcoming elections in France and Greece, which could undo recent policies put in place to regain investor confidence.
David Fuller's view I have discussed Europe, including the elections,
in Tuesday's Audio, along with Apple and other market developments.
At some
point brave investors will make good profits from oversold European equities,
but there is little reason why they need to take the plunge today. That said,
there is one category of European shares which are an important exception.
Europe's
Autonomies are finding earnings growth in China and other countries with relatively
strong economies and rising disposable incomes. BMW
is a good example and it yields 3.39%.