Eoin Treacy's view Here is a link to my presentation on the Autonomies. This 30-minute talk was webcast and will be available on the MoneyShow website from November 14th. I have also agreed to take part in a webinar on the 14th where I will review some of the themes covered. Two questions that came from the audience were particularly notable.

The first was from someone who attended the panel discussion Tim Price and I participated in to speak on the subject of where the “smart money” is headed. His question centred on whether a Japan or Zimbabwe environment was more likely to prevail. My response was that this was a rather black and white question inappropriate to the reality of global economics where such extremes seldom occur. From my perspective, the more important aspect of this question was in how much fear it reflected. People are still deeply suspicious of the monetary policy followed by some of the world’s largest central banks and the feeling of impending doom, in one form or another, continues to affect their actions.

The second question was from a Portuguese delegate who could not see any end to the ECB’s policy of low interest rates and supports for the banking sector in the form of access to liquidity. His experience of deflation in his domestic market notwithstanding the ECB is more likely to maintain its monetary accommodation for longer than the USA. The ECB’s interest rate hikes in 2011 represented the first time Europe had raised rates before the USA, following an easing cycle, in more than 30 years and they have since reversed course.

As a result of the grinding pace of fiscal adjustment, sentiment remains moribund among European citizens but corporations are benefitting from monetary accommodation. The Portuguese market, for example, broke out to new 2-year highs last week and a sustained move below 6000 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside.