Thoughts on Ireland's aid programme
What next
1) The writing of the MoU needs to be finalised.
2) The IMF Executive Board needs to approve its portion of the loan.
3) The MoU needs to be approved by Ireland. The finance minister has said earlier that he thought he had the authority to sign a loan deal, but that he was seeking legal opinion. Politically, however, it would be difficult not to put this to a parliamentary vote. We don't know whether this will be before or after the 2011 Budget vote on December 7.
4) Keep watching the pressure on Portugal and Spain. The Irish programme looks good for the stability and sustainability of its banks and is therefore good for the sovereign. The EU's avoidance of cram-down on senior bank debt is good news for European bank funding in general. The further clarification on the scope of the sovereign debt default clause under consideration by the EU is also positive (for example, haircuts will not be automatic). Nevertheless, from a macroeconomic perspective we remain cautious on Portugal; we remain constructive on Spain.
Eoin Treacy's view While
the Irish negotiations have moved one step closer to unlocking funds to support
the country's ailing financial sector, yesterday's announcement has failed to
quell speculation that the Eurozone's debt problems cannot be contained within
the periphery.
The Dow
Jones Euro Stoxx Banks Index, heavily
weighted by Santander, remains in a medium-term downtrend. It is now testing
the June lows near 150 and a sustained move above 200 would be required to question
the consistency of the decline.
Greek
spreads remains elevated but steady while Irish,
Portuguese, Spanish
and Italian spreads over Bunds continue
to post new highs. At least in part because of the lack of faith in the current
bailout mechanism, the Euro came under
additional selling pressure today; falling to $1.31. Taking a medium-term view
the failure near $1.40 three weeks ago marks a third lower rally high which
would need to be surmounted to question the relatively gradual return of US
Dollar dominance.