Tim Price: A cautionary tale
My thanks to the author for this ever-interesting letter published by PFP Wealth Management. Here is the cautionary tale:
A friend in Australia writes as follows:
"I seem to be having an investor's nightmare which I am unable to wake from, and I?m beginning to worry that it might be real after all. For many months I have been an enthusiastic seller of stocks and commodities..
"..I have been caught out by QE2 [the latest round of quantitative easing announced by the Federal Reserve, which may yet be followed by QE3 and QE4] and the smothering of the US dollar.. In addition I have built a huge short fund, that is continuously losing money. As a result my fund has been very badly hit by the recent surge in most asset classes, and I am not only nursing financial (paper) losses, but also emotional distress and psychological torture as well. It is as if the markets were watching my every move and my every decision, and then moving against me to inflict increasing pain in every way possible..
"The emotional and psychological effects of these experiences have surprised me. I have pretty much fallen apart; I am depressed; I have not slept well for several months (and now I'm on sleeping tablets). My attitude to money has changed; previously I didn't much care about the cost of things and had little desire to live extravagantly..
"I thought I should also share this story with you, as it might be helpful for your own perspective and feel free to use me as a "cautionary tale" for other would-be risk takers you might come across.."
David Fuller's view I assume this is a spoof. If not, this poor suffering soul needs to be in a straightjacket for his own protection.
Spoof or genuine, the tale is an opportunity to repeat Three Primary Rules of Investing, which veteran subscribers will recall are often mentioned by Rod Smith of The Weekly View, also posted on Fullermoney:
1. Don't fight the Fed
2. Don't buck the trend
3. Beware extremes in crowd sentiment