Tim Price: Don't shoot the messenger
Comment of the Day

March 09 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Tim Price: Don't shoot the messenger

This ever-interesting letter is posted without further comment and here is a sample

David Fuller's view A general principle of Darwinian evolution, commonly expressed as "survival of the fittest", is perhaps better expressed as "survival of those organisms most adaptive to change". Our central argument would be that the global financial environment has, in just two short years, already experienced something akin to massive climate change. For the time being, the blundering and heavy-booted forces of bureaucracy hold sway, busily distorting asset markets and making up for past regulatory failings by inadvertently impoverishing the innocent through punitively low interest rates and inadvertently (?) supporting failed malinvestments in commercial banking through an obsequious and Pavlovian obedience to the banking lobby. Immoral hazard, if you will. One possible outcome: until the unavoidable currency cataclysm, interest rates will stay lower for longer than almost anybody previously thought. We have advocated the benefits of genuinely high quality sovereign debt for some time, albeit those issuers amount to the road less travelled, being the likes of genuinely wealthy Gulf states and emerging Asian economies, many of them rich in natural resources. From an equity perspective, an environment of lower (interest rates) for longer would also be consistent with a gradual rerating of high quality largely defensive stocks offering sustainable dividend yields hugely more attractive than the pitiful yields being offered from fundamentally discredited and generally deteriorating government bond markets. Whether in a bond or equity environment, we think quality will absolutely win out. The tortoise versus the hare, if you will. It?s an ill wind that blows nobody any good.

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