Eoin Treacy's view

Although we are coming at the issue from somewhat different directions, we have a largely similar perspective. Most stock markets performed extremely well in March and are so far having a good April. If this performance continues into May, a number of indices will have become even more overextended relative to their 200-day moving averages which would make a reversionary process more likely. However, in such a scenario we are looking for no more than a pullback towards the MA. Provided most indices, and Wall Street in particular, remain to the left side of their ascending MAs we can continue to give the benefit of the doubt to medium-term uptrends.