Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

February 01 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

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David Fuller's view Palladium - Today's upward dynamic following some loss of momentum checks the slide after a somewhat larger reaction than seen previously within this trend which had steepened in recent months. A close beneath $410 is now required to indicate a further correction rather than sideways to higher ranging.

Platinum - Today's upward dynamic following a somewhat larger pullback has checked the decline near the upper side of the previous trading range. A close beneath $1485 is now require to indicate a larger correction rather than sideways to higher ranging but some resistance can be anticipated in the region of last month's weekly key reversal.

Gold - At least temporary support near the upper side of the previous step established in October and also the December reaction low has been confirmed by today's upward dynamic. A close beneath $1075 would now be required to indicate renewed weakness towards more extensive underlying trading rather than a ranging recovery within the overall upward trend.

Silver - Here also an upward dynamic has occurred today, checking the slide to lateral trading near $16 which is not far above the rising 200-day MA. Silver showed the most technical damage recently with a lower high and lower low, so a strong rebound from this overstretched decline is now required to remain consistent with the often volatile ranging upward trend.

Conclusion - At last, this looks like "change we can believe in", to quote President Obama in another context, although I would like to see upside follow through on Tuesday. Technically, precious metals are oversold in the short term, particularly gold and silver. There are certain to be shorts in the market (George Soros, given his comment at Davos?) so there should be potential for a decent rally. This is required to offset some technical damage. Palladium and platinum have held up best and should lead any renewed advance during what remains a favourable environment seasonally. Precious metals should do well if recent headwinds from the firm USD and soft stock markets are now reversed by a renewed appetite for so-called "risk" assets from speculators and investors.

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