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Thailand (SET) (p&f, weekly & daily) has extended its strong advance since the May low and edged above the 2007 high today. This rally from the large prior trading range remains very consistent (note the step sequence on the daily graph) but it is becoming overextended once again relative to the trend mean represented by the rising 200-day moving average. Watch for an eventual downward dynamic on the weekly chart for evidence of the next reaction and partial mean reversion for this strong relative performer.

Asean stock markets remain global leaders and are part of Fullermoney's progressing Asian market theme.

Indonesia (JCI) (weekly & daily) is the clear overall leader of this 10-nation group (note today's upward dynamic) although others have taken up the running recently. In addition to Thailand above, these other global leaders are Malaysia (KLCI) (weekly & daily), The Philippines (PCOMP) (weekly & daily), and Singapore (FSSTI) (weekly & daily), the latter being the region's one truly developed economy. Indonesia, Thailand and The Philippines are also becoming somewhat overstretched relative to their rising MAs and as with Thailand, downward dynamics would indicate the commencement of a pullback and some mean reversion. Singapore has yet to break up out of its multi-month trading range but remains steady near the upper boundary. Today's upward dynamic by Singapore is encouraging and a close beneath the August reaction low near 2910 would be required to further delay scope for an upward break in coming weeks.


The Asean leaders would almost certainly be pulled down if the US stock market (see below) broke beneath its July lows - an event widely forecast on Wall Street. We will let the charts guide us and such a decline could not occur without US indices first breaking their August lows. Currently a bear squeeze has commenced on Wall Street. The Asean message at present appears to be that some stronger economies are leading a resumption of cyclical bull trends.

India (SENSEX) (p&f, weekly & daily) has been ranging near the upper side of its boundary in the 18,000 region during recent weeks. Evidence of a potential upside failure was shrugged off yesterday and today, and a close beneath 17,825 is now required to signal a pullback into the underlying range. Conversely, a close above 18,500 would provide additional evidence that the overall upward trend is resuming following a lengthy consolidation.

Australia (AS51) (weekly & daily) has struggled since the failed break above 5000 in April and the weekly downside keys in June and the first half of August were further blows to sentiment. However, upward dynamics on Monday and also today indicate support above the May and July lows and scope for a test of the June and early-August highs near 4600.

Chile (IGPA) (weekly & daily) and Colombia (IGBC) (weekly & daily) are examples of the smaller runaway commodity producer trends in South America which are also Fullermoney themes. As with the Asean examples above, watch for a downward dynamic on the weekly charts to signal the next reaction and partial mean reversion towards the rising MAs. Brazil (IBOV) (weekly & daily) is the really important market in this region and remains very much rangebound. However, it does show rising lows (best seen on the weekly chart) since May and more upward than downward dynamics. A close beneath 63,800 would now be required to break this sequence and a close above 68,800 would cause this pattern to look somewhat more like a large continuation formation prior to further gains, rather than a top area.

Germany (DAX) (weekly & daily) is the key market in Euroland and although it has been rangebound for approximately a year, the large trading range mostly shows slightly higher lows and higher highs. This indicates that stocks have been under accumulation marginally more than distribution. Today's big upward dynamic has reaffirmed support in the 5800 region and a break beneath this level would be required to question the current outlook for a retest of the upper boundary and higher trending before yearend.

The United Kingdom (UKX) (weekly & daily) has also been rangebound for a similar period to Germany above. Downward dynamics, best seen on the weekly chart, dominated activity from April through early July but upward dynamics have been dominant subsequently. A sustained push above lateral trading slightly over 5400 would confirm that half the initial gains since the July low were held during a subsequent consolidation. It would also establish a potentially significant higher low and higher high, providing further evidence that demand is regaining the upper hand within the overall range.

The United States (SPX) (weekly & daily) can have a powerful leash effect on other stock markets and it has underperformed recently. Nevertheless today's upward dynamic indicates that it is finding support near the May and June lows and above the important July trough - a downward break which was not maintained. A close beneath 1040 is now necessary to offset scope for at least a retest of the highs near 1130.

Conclusion - A bear squeeze has commenced in rangebound stock markets in response to a short-term oversold condition. Together with bargain hunting it should fuel a further rally towards at least the upper side of current ranges. Many Fullermoney themes have led the way by extending their overall upward trends..

Copper (HG1) (weekly & daily) is strengthening within its present range and this will have a psychological effect on global economic recovery deniers. A close under 320¢ is now required to offset current scope for a renewed test of prior resistance above 350¢.