Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

February 14 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view View your own customised graphs in the Subscriber's Chart Library.

India's upside key day reversal on Friday checked the slide and today's upward gap indicates that a low of at least near-term significance has occurred. A close beneath 17,300 would now be required to offset the current outlook for at least an additional rebound towards lateral trading near 19,000. Thereafter, a pause, consolidation and establishment of a higher reaction low would indicate potential for an additional recovery and eventual resumption of the overall upward trend. This positive outlook would require a firm performance by the Bombay Bank Index (weekly & daily) which usually leads.

China's A-Share Index has rallied for eight of the last nine days on either side of the Chinese New Year break. Today's surge back above 3000 may be followed by some consolidation but more importantly, it has broken the progression of lower rally highs. This increases the probability that the overall pattern is a lengthy right-hand extension phase to the base formation, prior to a medium to longer-term recovery. A close back beneath 2800 would now be required to question this hypothesis.

Australia's stock market (weekly & daily) was held in check by the strong A$ last year and while the currency is still firm it is no longer appreciating against most other units. This is helping the stock market to rally back towards lateral resistance near 5000 and a decline back beneath 4800, which appears unlikely, would be required to indicate more than temporary resistance near the April 2010 high. Significantly, Australia's high-yielding financial sector (weekly & daily) is also appreciating. The large trading ranges for both these indices appear capable of supporting substantial additional gains over the medium to longer term.

Global Uranium Fund (GUR CN) (weekly & daily) had been overlooked in my earlier reviews of the sector but it looks promising, having broken up out of the first step above the base formation. A close back beneath $4 would now be required to question current scope for sideways to higher ranging. This closed-end fund (investment trust) still sells at a small discount to NAV of just over 4%, and the portfolio contains a broad selection of uranium mining shares. I may add the Global Uranium Fund to my own portfolio.

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