Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view China's
Shanghai A-Shares Index (weekly
& daily) has had a number of false
starts over the last two years, during which the economy has continued to grow
strongly, enabling valuations to improve.
Interestingly, after a significant decline since April, we have seen two upside
key day reversals off reaction lows this month, and a weekly key reversal has
also occurred over the last five days. These reversal dynamics indicate that
a low of at least near-term significance has been reached and a new closing
low for the year would be required to offset current scope for sideways to higher
ranging in a further recovery over the next few months.
Hong
Hong's HSI Index (weekly
& daily) accelerated to a low in
early October and has seen its biggest rally this month since the high at 25,000
one year ago. This indicates that a potentially important low has been established
and that downside risk is now limited to a partial retracement of recent gains
in a support building process prior to an additional recovery.
Hong
Kong's HSCEI (H-Shares) Index
(weekly & daily)
has a similar pattern and found support in the upper region of the 4Q 2008 to
1Q 2009 base. Here also downside risk appears limited to a partial retracement
of this month's gains in a support building process prior to an additional recovery.
India's
Sensex Index (weekly
& daily) has rallied from lateral
support near 16,000 to lateral trading near 18,000 which has provided both support
and resistance over the last year. The Sensex has also approached its downward
trending 200-day MA. Consequently, it is at an interesting level as further
strength would break the downward trend, although this would not be fully confirmed
until the progression of lower rally highs - the last one was in July - is broken.
Conversely, a decline back beneath 17,000 would begin to suggest that supply
had regained the upper hand. In what is a finely balanced technical picture,
I would give the upside the benefit of the doubt, unless proved otherwise, due
to the rebound in global stock markets, although an offsetting factor may be
the Bombay Banks Index's current underperformance.
Singapore's
Straits Times Index (weekly
& daily) has surged higher
since its early-October low. This increases the possibility that a sustainable
low has been reached. However, a partial pullback and additional support building
phase may be required before potential resistance from overhead trading, the
declining MA and lateral trading near the psychological 3000 level is successfully
challenged.
Indonesia's
JCI Index (weekly
& daily), so often an upside leader,
has regained approximately two-thirds of its decline from the August high. This
increases chances that the late-September low will hold, although resistance
from the upper boundary may make further upward progress more laboured. Nevertheless,
a close back beneath 3600 would be required to question the current outlook
for sideways to higher ranging.
Australia's
AS51 Index (weekly & daily)
accelerated to a low in August and continued to build support above its 2008-2009
base for the next two months. Overhead supply may make further upward progress
laboured but a close beneath 4130 would now be required to question evidence
that demand has regained the upper hand.