Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view Indonesia
(weekly & daily),
so often a strong relative performer, reached another new all-time high today.
It is somewhat overextended relative to its 200-day moving average and this
has periodically led to mean reversion in the past. Currently, a close beneath
4300 would be required to check upside momentum, indicate an upside failure
and suggest that a corrective phase had begun. Among global and regional factors,
a further setback on Wall Street would represent a headwind while a stronger
performance from China would constitute a tailwind.
Malaysia
(weekly & daily),
the Philippines (weekly & daily)
and Thailand (weekly & daily)
all have very similar patterns. This commonality in strength bodes well for
the medium term. Breaks in the progressions of higher reaction lows would be
required to question sideways to higher momentum.
Singapore
(weekly & daily)
continues to underperform its ASEAN sisters above and saw an upside failure
earlier this month. A close beneath 3000 which persisted for more than a day
or two would indicate a further loss of form.
China's
A-Shares (weekly & daily)
have fallen back from their September rally high, further delaying recovery
prospects. While at least temporary support is likely to be encountered from
the late-September low, further upward dynamics are required to reaffirm that
a support building process is actually underway prior to a more significant
recovery.
India's
Sensex (weekly & daily)
had a downside key day reversal on 5th October and it resumed its setback today
on news that the RBI had disappointed investors by deciding to keep short-term
interest rates on hold due to lingering inflationary pressures. An upward dynamic
is now required to check near-term scope for some additional easing towards
the rising MA before underlying trading supports a test of the 2008 and 2010
peaks.