Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

November 21 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Why not check the market facts before theorising?

David Fuller's view China's Shanghai A-Shares Index formed a potentially important upside key day reversal today, near the September low. Upside follow through tomorrow would provide additional evidence that China's A-Shares are in a support building phase prior to a significant recovery.

The Philippines Manila Composite Index (weekly & daily) remains one of the world's strongest stock markets, having ranged near its highs during Wall Street's recent correction and resuming the overall advance yesterday and again today. While somewhat overextended relative to its 200-day MA, a close beneath 5400 would currently be required to indicate some mean reversion.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index (weekly & daily) has surged back to the upper side of its range since June. A clear downward dynamic would be required to reaffirm more than temporary resistance near current levels; however, this is unlikely given the overvalued yen's weakening trend, shown here in reverse against the US dollar which remains a soft currency except during global crises USD/JPY (weekly & daily). Fullermoney has long maintained that a significantly weaker yen, which we should now see as the BoJ's hard money advocates are being replaced and will be entirely out of office by next April, was required to end Japan's deflation and underpin a major stock market recovery. As a relevant aside, Fullermoney's view is that a hard currency is commendable, provided that most other countries and particularly one's commercial rivals are not mostly devaluing their currencies, as we see today.

The Euro STOXX Bank Index (weekly & daily) and the Euro STOXX 50 Index (weekly & daily) have firmed within their current ranges while retaining most of their recovery from the July and June lows, respectively, during what appears to be a consolidation. Closes beneath 100 for the Banks Index and 2400 for the Shares Index, respectively, would be required to question our current hypothesis that the current ranges will support higher levels over the medium term.

Note also the firmness of precious metals. I reviewed them most recently on Monday and will do so again before the end of this week.

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