Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view Price
action, seen on charts, is the investor's best defence against wayward market
opinions.
If
China's economy is now improving along with global GDP growth, which I believe
is the case, albeit gradually, then industrial metal prices should also be firming
after several years of lacklustre performance.
Lead
LME 3M (weekly & daily)
appears to have developed a base formation since September 2011 and completed
this pattern in recent months. However, given previous resistance in this region,
the rising lows since mid 2012 need to hold as a close beneath $2250 would negate
the base completion hypothesis. Conversely, a sustained push above $2500 would
reaffirm upward scope.
Copper
CMX (weekly & daily)
has encountered strong resistance near 400¢ since 2006, except for a few
months during 2011. However, the current pattern since October of that year
will continues to look like a gradually developing base, provided the lows continue
to rise. Currently, this pattern shows the potential for a successful test of
400¢ later this year.
Tin LME
3M (weekly & daily)
rallied strongly with stock markets from November 2012, to test lateral resistance
near the psychological $25,000 level. Unlike the last test of this region two
years ago, there has been no clear downward dynamic to signal a reversal of
the advance. Therefore, until or unless that happens, I would give the benefit
of the doubt to a successful consolidation of recent gains over the next several
months, prior to a sustained break above the recent highs.
Zinc
LME 3M has been a laggard (weekly &
daily) in the sector, although it has
rallied well since mid-January, clearing the last three highs in the process.
Consequently, and in line with other metals, this pattern looks increasingly
like a base formation in the latter stages of development. If so, the next important
test will be to see how successfully it can challenge higher trading last established
between late 2009 and most of 2011.
Aluminium
LME 3M is the laggard in this sector (weekly
& daily). Nevertheless, it
has shown evidence of support building since mid-2012. Therefore I would give
the upside the benefit of the doubt, provided the recent reaction lows near
$2030 continue to hold.
Nickel
LME 3M has a similar pattern to Aluminium above (weekly
& daily), albeit slightly more
advanced. Currently, it appears to be consolidating beneath the October 2012
high and a successful break above $19,000 would reaffirm upward scope.
(See
also Eoin's comments on metals and mining shares below.)