David Fuller's view The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly & daily) surged to a new all-time numerical high today by exceeding its 2007 peak. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Transports (weekly & daily) continues its surge into new all-time high ground. I am not really a Dow Theorist, because it is not a very sensitive indicator. However, I respect the long-term history of Dow Theory, often commented on by the venerable Richard Russell, and today's new high by the DJIA, if maintained and extended, signals a potentially significant Dow Theory buy signal, at least while we still have QE. Conversely, a DJIA close beneath 13,770 would indicate a potentially significant upside failure.

China's pullback (weekly & daily) since the 1-week New Year Holiday has been choppy, given the political handover and economic problems mentioned in the section above. If it can hold above yesterday's and today's lows, the current pattern will look like a medium-term consolidation prior to further gains, perhaps well before yearend. However, a further setback and break of the MA would look like a potentially lengthy right-hand extension phase following the spike low and sharp rebound which stalled in February.

Total Known ETF Holdings of Gold - I have long felt that an eventual strong rise in interest rates would provide the biggest headwind for gold bullion and that is not an immediate prospect. However, underperformance relative to stock markets has led to a sharper reaction in Known ETF Holdings of Gold and we have now seen a break of their 200-day MA. This is another warning and although we have yet to see a lower low, a rally which moves back above the MA and holds is required to steady nerves in this market.