Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view
Price changes can alert us to potential changes in the supply vs demand balance,
before they become widely recognised by the crowd.
Relative
strength often occurs where bank and financial indices are outperforming their
broader national market. Conversely, when bank and financial indices revert
to persistent underperformance, particularly following a significant market
advance, it is often an early indication that economic conditions are deteriorating.
Singapore's
Financial Index (monthly
& 5-year weekly) is still outperforming
the Straits Times Index (monthly
& 5-year weekly), although both
are a little overextended relative to their rising 200-day moving averages.
Both continue to show relative strength during a global corrective phase within
the overall bull market environment which commenced in 2009. This was only significantly
interrupted during 2011 and clear downward dynamics would be required to question
Singapore's relative outperformance.
India
(monthly, 5-year
weekly & daily) could not be
more different from Singapore, including a considerably more volatile stock
market. However, it has firmed recently, as I mentioned on Tuesday, helped by
the pullback in Brent oil. Moreover,
India's Banks Index (historic monthly,
5-year weekly & daily),
which I did not show previously, is leading the current rally. While the present
global corrective phase is likely to limit further near-term gains, if India's
indices can remain above this month's earlier lows for the duration of the global
stock market correction, that would bode well for its medium-term outlook.
Meanwhile,
this global correction could easily persist well into May, if not somewhat longer.
Australia's
Financial Index (monthly & weekly)
is clearly outperforming the ASX200 Index (monthly
& weekly). However, both are temporarily
overextended relative to their MAs and may struggle to hold the most recent
of these gains during the remainder of this global corrective phase. Nevertheless,
the medium-term outlook remains attractive.