Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

May 04 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Today's interesting charts

Sell in May…? may have been taken to heart this year, let's examine some of the more interesting charts.

Eoin Treacy's view VSTOXX - breaks the 18-month progression of lower rally highs and a sustained move below 50 would be required to question scope for further upside.

S&P500 - breaks downwards from the short-term range, having encountered resistance in the region of 1200. Some further reversion towards the rising 200-day MA appears likely with the main question being how fast this will occur. A sustained move back above 1200 would be required to reassert medium-term demand dominance.

Spain - falls to a new reaction low and a move back above 10,500 would be required to limit scope for additional downside.

Germany - pulls back to test the psychological 6000 but an upward dynamic would be required for this to offer anything other that temporary support in the ongoing mean reversion.

Brazil - testing the MA near 65,000 as it continues to range below the 2008 peak. A sustained move below 60,000 would be needed to break the progression of rising reaction lows and further question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Chile - remains in a tight range in the region of 3800 forming a relatively gradual mean reversion. A sustained move below 3500 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Peru - pulls back from the psychological 16,000 again, but a sustained move below 13,500 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

US 30yr Treasuries - rallies to break the 5-month progression of lower rally highs and a downward dynamic would be required to check scope for some additional upside.

UK 10yr - Gilts break upwards from the four-month range and a downward dynamic would be required to limit potential for some further upside.

German 10yr yield - retesting the early 2009 lows near 2.85% and a sustained move above 3.1% would be required to question potential for some additional lower to lateral ranging.

Gold - failed to sustain the retest of $1200 and formed a key day reversal. Follow through tomorrow would emphasize resistance in this area while a countermanding upward dynamic would signal renewed demand and increase the chances of a successful upward break.

Gasoline - downward dynamic forms a failed upside break and probably caps the short-term advance. A further consolidation appears likely, but a sustained move below $200 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

US Dollar per 1 Euro - the Euro falls back to test $1.30 but an upward dynamic and/or a sustained move back above $1.35 would be required to question scope for further downside.

In conclusion, investors are taking profits in some of the better performing markets and some of the worst performers, particularly in Southern Europe are extending their declines. This pullback is looking increasingly like a medium-term reversion towards the mean. In such a scenario, there will inevitably be some markets that overshoot but provided Wall Street remains in a relatively consistent medium-term uptrend, its leash effect will remain positive.

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