Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view Price
charts represent reality in terms of supply and demand - the rest is noise.
Dubai
(weekly & daily)
is completing a V-bottom with very extensive right-hand extension base formation,
indicating plenty of upside potential over the medium term to longer term. It
is also short-term overbought but if the next reaction finds support above 50,
that would continue to indicate overall demand dominance. A move beneath 45
would suggest a medium-term pullback.
Here
are the top three shares in Dubai, in market capitalisation terms, and quoted
in dirham (AED): Emaar Properties (weekly
& daily) (EMAAR DB) (Est P/E 15.18,
Yield 1.82%; Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB DB) (weekly
& daily) (Est P/E 9.97, Yield 5.14%);
Emirates Integrated Telecomm (DU DB) (weekly
& daily) (Est P/E 12.51,
Yield 5.84%).
Nigeria
(weekly & daily)
is resuming its uptrend despite some widely publicised massacres and a close
beneath 32,700 would be required to indicate a more extensive corrective phase
before higher levels are seen.
Japan's
Nikkei (historic, weekly
& daily) remains on a tear as does
the Second Section TSE2 (weekly &
daily). This persistent one-way traffic
has continued because investors were significantly underweight Japanese equities,
understandably given the back history, and were caught out by Shinzo Abe's appropriately
aggressive, in my opinion, reflationary efforts. A question on the minds of
everyone who is interested in Japan is: When will this steep advance spill over
into a multi-month reaction and consolidation? We can only guess but should
recognise the early evidence. Clear breaks in the progressions of higher reaction
lows shown on the daily charts, accompanied by some large downward dynamics
and a loss of upside momentum relative to what we have seen since mid-November
2012 are required to indicate more than short-term ranging consolidations. Meanwhile,
watch for numerical hurdles in the path. The next big round number where some
investors may reassess is 15,000 for the Nikkei, thereafter 18,000 where the
important 2007 highs occurred. Watch the Topix Banks Index (weekly
& daily) which will more than
doubled when it reaches 200. Currently, a close beneath 180 would indicate a
loss of form. Also, watch USD/JPY (historic,
weekly & daily)
because ¥100 is an obvious psychological hurdle. A move beneath ¥97,
should it occur again, could be a concern if it lasted more than a day or two.
Conversely, a clear break above ¥100 should give Japan's stock market an
additional boost.
The US
Dollar Index is rolling over (weekly
& daily). It is still above the 200-day
MA but this looks like a lower high, albeit within a long-term sideways trading
range. Previously, a softer USD has often coincided with growing confidence
in stock markets and GDP growth. Conversely, the greenback is seen as a liquid
haven when investors are worried.