Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view The
Philippines (weekly & daily),
Indonesia (weekly & daily)
and Thailand (weekly & daily)
became increasingly overextended relative to their trend means, approximated
by their 200-day moving averages, during the second quarter of this year. They
peaked in May and fell sharply in a mean reversion process, before commencing
sharp rallies on Wednesday. Further near-term gains may be more difficult to
maintain, because big overextensions relative to 200-day MAs within what have
been clear overall upward trends, are signs of euphoria and therefore difficult
to sustain over the short-term and also often the medium-term as well.
Singapore's
Straits Times Index (weekly &
daily) has seen some loss of downside
momentum but so far this is only a modest improvement following the 5-week slide.
A close above the last 3-day rally high near 3240 is required to provide further
evidence that a low of at lest near-term significance has been reached late
last week and earlier this week.
India's
Sensex Index (weekly & daily)
has checked its 5-week slide with a weekly key reversal, and it also saw an
upside breakaway gap on the daily chart. Consequently, closes beneath 18,500
are now required to offset some further recovery within the current broad trading
range. Note: today's oversold rally was boosted by energy
reforms.
China's
Shanghai A-Share Index (weekly &
daily) accelerated to its lowest level
since January 2009 on Tuesday. It has steadied and should see some further recovery
in response to the large decline which commenced in late May, despite all the
uncertainty.
Japan's
Nikkei 225 (weekly & daily)
lost downside momentum in June and closed at its highest level for the month
today. It is still well above its MA, but a lot less so than in May. A close
beneath 12,430 would now be required to offset current scope for a further ranging
recovery. Japan remains the most promising major market, thanks to Abenomics,
particularly if the Japan Topix 2nd Section (weekly
& daily) can reassert its earlier
relative strength.
Europe's
Euro STOXX 50 underperformance (weekly
& daily) is reaffirmed by the fall
to its lowest level of the year on Monday. Nevertheless, a close beneath 2490
is now required to signal lower scope and offset current prospects for a potential
downside failure and extension of this year's trading range. Worryingly, the
Euro STOXX Bank Index (weekly &
daily) remains weaker and is barely
steady above lateral support near 100, dating back to September 2012.
The
S&P 500 Index vs
MSCI World Free continues to show the outperformance of the US stock market
since 2008. However, it may be in a latter stage of this relative strength as
the top area around the turn of the Century is approached. Nevertheless, a break
in the progression of higher reaction lows will be required to signal the next
likely reversal phase. Similarly, albeit in reverse order, the MSCI
Emerging Markets vs S&P 500 Index, shows that the former sector has
accelerated lower recently. Consequently, the first rally in excess of the last
one shown since the current downtrend commenced in mid-2010, is likely to mark
the onset of a significant change in relative performance.