Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

June 04 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Today's interesting charts

Markets remain jittery and despite the two-week rally seen in most markets, investor sentiment remains fragile. Today's intensification of European debt worries as well as weaker US jobs news was enough to set at least some end-of-week profit taking in motion. So where does this leave the technical picture?

Eoin Treacy's view S&P500 - bounced from near the February lows last week but needs to sustain a move above the 200-day MA, near 1106, to indicate demand has regained the upper hand beyond the short term.

UK FTSE-100 - similar to the S&P above, with the Index having bounced from near 5000 and the 200-day MA in the region of 5250.

Germany - found support in the region of the 200-day moving average last week but today's downside key day reversal checks the short-term rally and a sustained move above 6115 would be required to question scope for a further test of underlying trading.

Australia ASX200 - bounced well from the May 21st low but is now at the first area of potential resistance, near the lower side of the overhead range. A failure at this area would probably open the door to a further test of underlying trading.

Brazil - rallied back to test the 200-day MA but needs to get back above it, with a sustained move above 64,000 to indicate demand is regaining the upper hand beyond a short-term bounce.

Indonesia - rallied emphatically from near the 200-day MA and now has ample room to consolidate above the late May low while remaining in a consistent uptrend. A sustained move below 2500 would now be required to question the medium-term bullish outlook.

DJ Euro Stoxx Banks - breaks downwards from the 1-month range and a sustained move back above 170 is now required to offset scope for some further downside.

Lead - broke downwards from the most recent distribution this week and while overextended relative to the 200-day MA, a clear upward dynamic sustained for more than a day or two would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.

Oil - bounced well from the May 20th low and has encountered resistance at the psychological $75 and the 200-day MA for the last week. It needs to sustain a break above $75 to confirm a return to demand dominance.

Gold - finds support in the region of $1200 and would need to sustain a move below $1195 to question scope for some continued higher to lateral ranging.

US Dollar per 1 Euro - breaks downwards from the short-term distribution and while the $1.20 area may offer token support, a sustained move back above $1.25 would be required to question potential for some additional Euro weakness.

Eurobunds - posts a new high and a countermanding downward dynamic would be required to question scope for some further upside.

In conclusion, a large number of stock market indices rallied impressively from last week's lows but are now encountering resistance in the region of their 200-day moving averages. They will now have to find support above or in the region of their recent lows to lend credence to the short-term bullish outlook.

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