Today's Interesting Charts
Comment of the Day

July 06 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's Interesting Charts

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Australia (AS51) - recorded an upside key day reversal after testing its May reaction low today. Consequently a close beneath 4180 is now required to offset current scope for a technical rally and instead, reaffirm the downtrend. While support from the former base should cushion downside risk in the latter event, an eventual push back above the June high near 4620 is the minimum required to signal that demand has regain the upper-hand beyond a temporary bounce.

Japan (Nikkei 225) - also registered an upside key day reversal today near lateral trading in the 9000 region. This indicates scope for some additional near-term recovery but a close above the June high near 10,260 would be required to reaffirm underlying support and negate the downward bias since April.

Thailand (SET) - has shown impressive relative strength during the global stock market correction to date. A close beneath 785 would now be required to check the upward bias and reaffirm resistance near the April high.

Indonesia (JCI) - has paused just beneath its April-May highs and the psychological 3000 level. A sustained break above that level would reaffirm the overall upward bias.

Philippines (PCOMP) - continues to range with a slight upward bias and a close beneath 3220 would be required to reaffirm resistance near the upper boundary and scope for an additional reaction.

India (Sensex) - tested its April high before drifting slightly lower during Wall Street's renewed correction. A break in the gradual progression of higher reaction lows evident since October is required to turn this into a probable top area rather than a slow build-up of support before a resumption of the overall upward trend. India's Bombay Banks Index (weekly & daily) remains a relative outperformer.

Conclusion - This relative strength against the background of both Wall Street's and China's recent stock market weakness is remarkable and also matched by some of South America's stock markets. I think it would be premature to assume that the pipedream of decoupling had finally arrived for global stock markets but it is probably a good indication as to what will lead in the next significant upturn for equities.

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