Toll Brothers Sales Up 'Tremendously' Last Week, CEO Tells CNBC
Comment of the Day

March 02 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Toll Brothers Sales Up 'Tremendously' Last Week, CEO Tells CNBC

This short piece by John Gittelsohn for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, had the best week of sales in February since 2006 last week, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in a CNBC interview.

Sales were up "tremendously" from the prior week, Toll said. The company's top market was its City Living business in New York City, he said.

Eoin Treacy's view The Case Shiller 10 Index, in common with the Nationwide Index in the above piece also found support from the 1st quarter of 2009 and continues to build support above 150. The US economy faces many challenges and it will take time for excess supply to be absorbed, but provided the Index does not sustain a move below last year's low, we can assume that the bottoming out process has begun.

There is a high degree of commonality across the US homebuilders sector. Most companies bottomed in late 2008 and have sustained progressions of rising reaction lows within their bases. These would need to be taken out to limit scope for a successful upside break and indicate a further period of base formation extension. Pulte Homes, DR Horton, Toll Brothers and MDC all share this pattern. Lennar Corp is an upside leader.

NVR which also conducts mortgage activity is outperforming the sector. It has more than doubled since last March and continues to consolidate in the region of $700. A sustained move back below $650 would be required to break the progression of rising reaction lows, fall through the ascending 200-day moving average and question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

Elsewhere in the home building sector, Rossi Residential and Gafisa of Brazil remain in relatively consistent uptrends and would need to sustain moves below the ascending 200-day moving average to question potential for further higher to lateral ranging. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 27th). Urbi Desarrolos Urbanos of Mexico shares a similar pattern but has outperformed somewhat but failed to sustain the upside break two weeks ago making a retest of the 200-day moving average more likely. Thailand's Land & Homes found support above THB5 a month ago and has since rallied back above the 200-day moving average. A sustained move back below that level would be required to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

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