The strength of the U.S. economy depends on whether you believe optimists like Mark Zandi or pessimists like David Rosenberg.

Economists Zandi and Neal Soss, who project sustained growth during the next six months, agree with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that the recent slowdown in consumer spending, manufacturing and gross domestic product will be transitory. They point to two years of expansion in the world's largest economy and rising corporate profits as signs that GDP is poised to pick up.

The U.S. is "measurably stronger today than a year ago,"
said Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "You can see it in the job market. At that time, job growth had just started to resume; now 2 million private-sector jobs have been created."

Rosenberg and Ethan Harris predict the U.S. will struggle as some fiscal-stimulus programs end and federal, state and local governments continue to slash budgets. Companies aren't likely to use their record earnings to accelerate hiring, the economists say, while no one knows exactly how long it will take to resolve the European debt crisis and repair factories in Japan following the earthquake and tsunami.

"To say that the air pocket that we hit in the first quarter was all transitory is a mistaken view," said Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.

"The whole recovery's been a soft patch." Another recession "is practically baked in the cake, barring another round of policy stimulus."

Eoin Treacy's view Disagreement between what exactly the problems are and how best to fix them has been a significant characteristic of the response to the economic slowdown and subsequent recovery in the USA. In addition countries such as Canada, Australia, the UK, Ireland and others share the characteristic that exporters leveraged to the growth of the global middle class are outperforming whereas companies exposed to their respective national consumers, outside of the discount sector, are struggling.

Hundreds of millions of newly minted consumers, primarily in Asia, can now afford to consume more calories which is helping fuel demand for agricultural products over the medium to long term. However, while the farm machinery sector has been among the better performers, it has entered a corrective phase in common with the wider stock market.

Deere & Co. hit a new high near $100 in April and subsequently pulled back to break the two-year progression of higher reaction lows. It is now testing the region of the 200-day MA but will need to sustain a move above $84 to confirm more than temporary support in this area. Toro Co. has, so far, held its progression of higher reaction lows but needs to continue to find support in the region of the 200-day MA for the medium-term uptrend to remain relatively consistent. (Also see Comment of the Day on March 29th).

CNH Global has experienced a deeper reaction and a sustained move above $64.50 would be required to break the six-month downtrend. Fiat Industrial and AGCO Corp have experienced similar declines.

In India, Mahindra & Mahindra has been among that stock market's better performers and continues to outpace the wider market. It rallied impressively last week, from above the March low and a sustained move below INR600 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.