Treasuries Rise Third Day on Cyprus Concern as Fed Opens Meeting
Comment of the Day

March 19 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Treasuries Rise Third Day on Cyprus Concern as Fed Opens Meeting

This article by Cordell Eddings and Susanne Walker for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
“It's strictly just a flight-to-quality bid,” said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading in New York at Bank of Nova Scotia, one of 21 primary dealers that trade with the U.S. central bank. “The Fed really has to mention the economy has improved somewhat. The real fear for this market is that they change their tune somewhat, and they could, because the data has changed.”

The 10-year term premium, a model that includes expectations for interest rates, growth and inflation, was at negative 0.71 percent, the most expensive level since March 5. A negative reading indicates investors are willing to accept yields below what's considered fair value.

Treasuries due in a decade or more are trading at almost the cheapest level since 2011 relative to global peers with comparable maturities, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Yields on the Treasuries reached 54 basis points higher than those in an index of other sovereign debt on March 14, the most since August 2011, the data showed. The spread was 53 basis points yesterday.

Eoin Treacy's view s optimism towards the stock market improved over the last few months US 10-year Treasury prices have been trending lower; defined by a progression of lower rally highs since August. Prices are currently rallying to unwind a short-term oversold condition. A move back above 133, held for more than a week or two, would be required to question potential for continued lower to lateral ranging over the medium term.

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