U.K. Pound Falls to 9-Month Low Versus Dollar on Debt Concerns
Comment of the Day

February 25 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

U.K. Pound Falls to 9-Month Low Versus Dollar on Debt Concerns

This article by Paul Dobson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The pound slid to a nine-month low against the dollar as ratings companies said they may downgrade Greece's debt, stirring concern Britain may struggle to tackle its own record deficit.

Sterling fell against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers as investors added to bets the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates near record-low levels this year. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service said Greece, which has the European Union's largest budget deficit, faces downgrades as early as next month. At more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, the U.K. deficit is on a par with that of Greece.

"Sterling is being seen in the risk bucket and risk is off the agenda right now," said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. Investors are taking bets on rate hikes "off the table," he said.

The pound fell as much as 1.1 percent to $1.5245, the lowest level since May 18, and was at $1.5272 as of 2:01 p.m. in London. The U.K. currency weakened 0.5 percent to 88.30 pence per euro.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is selling a record amount of debt to finance stimulus measures that were introduced to help the economy recover from the longest recession on record. The government in December increased its planned gilt sales for the fiscal year that will end in March to a record 225.1 billion pounds from the 220 billion pounds announced in April.

Bruce Stout, who runs Aberdeen Asset Management Plc's Murray International Trust, said he's concerned Britain's widening debt gap will hamper economic growth.

Eoin Treacy's view While the UK and Greece share a similar deficit relative to GDP, the UK has the option of devaluing its currency. The UK allowed the Pound to deteriorate through 2008 in one of the first and most aggressive devaluations of the period. It stabilized against most currencies from early last year as the economic problems elsewhere took centre stage. However, with an election approaching, wide deficits and the uncertainty of when monetary conditions will be tightened, attention has refocused on the Pound.

The UK Sterling Index found support in January last year and continues to range with an upward bias above 70. It is now testing the progression of higher lows and these would need to be taken out to suggest scope for a deeper correction and retest of the lows.

Against the US Dollar, the Pound broke downwards from the 8-month range in January and continues to extend the decline. An upward dynamic would be required to check deterioration while a sustained move above $1.58 would be required to indicate a return to dominance for the Pound.

Against the Euro, the Pound has sustained a medium-term progression of higher lows since January 2009 and a short-term progression since October. It continues to pull back from the €1.16 level but a sustained move below €1.10 would be required to indicate a return to Euro dominance.

The Pound broke downwards from the four-month range today against the Yen and a sustained move above ¥145 would be required to question scope for further downside.

The Pound has also deteriorated considerably against a wide range of commodity related and emerging market currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real, Indian Rupee, Russian Ruble, Singapore Dollar, Mexican Peso and while it is oversold against a number of these currencies, upward dynamics are required to check momentum beyond a brief pause and suggest that demand is returning.

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