U.K. Pound Falls to 9-Month Low Versus Dollar on Debt Concerns
The pound slid to a nine-month low against the dollar as ratings companies said they may downgrade Greece's debt, stirring concern Britain may struggle to tackle its own record deficit.
Sterling fell against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers as investors added to bets the Bank of England will need to keep interest rates near record-low levels this year. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service said Greece, which has the European Union's largest budget deficit, faces downgrades as early as next month. At more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, the U.K. deficit is on a par with that of Greece.
"Sterling is being seen in the risk bucket and risk is off the agenda right now," said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. Investors are taking bets on rate hikes "off the table," he said.
The pound fell as much as 1.1 percent to $1.5245, the lowest level since May 18, and was at $1.5272 as of 2:01 p.m. in London. The U.K. currency weakened 0.5 percent to 88.30 pence per euro.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown is selling a record amount of debt to finance stimulus measures that were introduced to help the economy recover from the longest recession on record. The government in December increased its planned gilt sales for the fiscal year that will end in March to a record 225.1 billion pounds from the 220 billion pounds announced in April.
Bruce Stout, who runs Aberdeen Asset Management Plc's Murray International Trust, said he's concerned Britain's widening debt gap will hamper economic growth.
Eoin Treacy's view While
the UK and Greece share a similar deficit relative to GDP, the UK has the option
of devaluing its currency. The UK allowed the Pound to deteriorate through 2008
in one of the first and most aggressive devaluations of the period. It stabilized
against most currencies from early last year as the economic problems elsewhere
took centre stage. However, with an election approaching, wide deficits and
the uncertainty of when monetary conditions will be tightened, attention has
refocused on the Pound.
The UK
Sterling Index found support in January last year and continues to range
with an upward bias above 70. It is now testing the progression of higher lows
and these would need to be taken out to suggest scope for a deeper correction
and retest of the lows.
Against
the US Dollar, the Pound broke downwards
from the 8-month range in January and continues to extend the decline. An upward
dynamic would be required to check deterioration while a sustained move above
$1.58 would be required to indicate a return to dominance for the Pound.
Against
the Euro, the Pound has sustained a medium-term
progression of higher lows since January 2009 and a short-term progression since
October. It continues to pull back from the €1.16 level but a sustained
move below €1.10 would be required to indicate a return to Euro dominance.
The Pound
broke downwards from the four-month range today against the Yen and a sustained
move above ¥145 would be required to question scope for further downside.
The Pound
has also deteriorated considerably against a wide range of commodity related
and emerging market currencies, such as the Australian
Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian
Real, Indian Rupee, Russian
Ruble, Singapore Dollar, Mexican
Peso and while it is oversold against a number of these currencies, upward
dynamics are required to check momentum beyond a brief pause and suggest that
demand is returning.