Uranium related shares
Comment of the Day

October 11 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Uranium related shares

Eoin Treacy's view Following on from a review of Chinese companies involved in the nuclear reactor construction industry in Comment of the Day on Thursday I thought it might be instructive to review some of the leading uranium miners. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 14th and September 28th 2010).

BHP Billiton is one of the largest, but most diluted producers of the metal. The share has been consolidating in the region of its 2008 peak for much of the year. It found support in the region of its 200-day MA from May and is currently rallying towards the April peak. A sustained move below 1900p would be required to question potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.

Rio Tinto has also rallied to test the April highs and while a little overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below 3300p would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Energy Resources of Australia, in which Rio Tinto is the majority shareholder, pulled back from the 2007 peak late last year and has been ranging above mostly A$12.50 since May - in an unwinding of the deeply oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA. It rallied impressively last week, to test the upper side of the five-month range and a downward dynamic would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

Cameco Corp found support near C$22 in July and ranged mostly below C$27.50 until late September when it broke upwards. A sustained move below that level would now be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Areva is involved in just about every area of the nuclear fuel cycle as well as reactor construction. The share is currently testing the lower side of the two-year base, having trended steadily lower over the last year. Given the commonality across the sector and the recent rally in Toshiba Plant System shares, there is scope for a bounce but a sustained move above the 200-day MA, currently near €345 would be required to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Uranium One remains in a two-year and counting base but has rallied impressively since May and a sustained move back below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Paladin Energy rallied well from the late 2008 lows but has been drifting since mid 2009. While the progression of lower rally highs remains intact, the share has held the rally from near C$3 relatively well. A sustained move above C$4 would likely indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Extract Resources, which Rio Tinto also holds a significant percentage of, hit a medium-term peak near A$11.50 a year ago and has drifted lower since. It has paused near A$6 but a sustained move above A$7 would be required to indicate a return to demand dominance.

Denison Mines has a relatively similar pattern to Uranium One, mentioned above. It remains in a two-year base but has firmed of late. A sustained move below C$1.70 would now be required to check the three-month uptrend and question scope for further upside.

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