As world population growth slows, global consumption growth—the demand that fuels much of the world’s economic expansion—will depend heavily on how much each individual spends. Knowing which consumers are likely to be spending robustly, where they are, and what products and services they prefer to purchase becomes even more important for companies, policy makers, and investors.

Until the turn of the century, more than half of global consumption growth came from an expanding number of consumers in the world. In the period to 2030, population growth will generate only 25 percent of global consumption growth with the rest coming from rising per capita consumption. For decades, companies serving consumer markets could rely on expanding numbers in most segments—but no longer.

Nine groups of urban consumers are projected to generate three-quarters of global urban consumption growth from 2015 to 2030—and just three groups about half of that growth:
Developed retiring and elderly (60-plus years in developed regions). This group will grow by more than one-third, from 164 million in 2015 to 222 million in 2030. It will generate 51 percent of urban consumption growth in developed countries, and 19 percent of global urban consumption growth.

China’s working-age consumers (15 to 59 years). Their number will expand by 20 percent—an additional 100 million people. Their per capita consumption is expected to more than double. By 2030, they will spend 12 cents of every $1 of worldwide urban consumption.

North America’s working-age consumers (15 to 59 years). The already large numbers and per capita consumption of this group will grow modestly by 7 percent and 24 percent, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. Many younger consumers are under income pressure and are cost conscious in their spending.

Consumption is shifting toward services, reflecting two trends: heavy spending on health care among aging consumers in developed regions, and increasing spending by consumers in emerging economies as their incomes rise to thresholds where consumption of services such as communications, transport, restaurants, and catering takes off.

Cities matter. By 2030, consumers in large cities will account for 81 percent of global consumption and generate 91 percent of global consumption growth from 2015 to 2030. Global urban consumption is extraordinarily concentrated—just 32 cities are likely to generate one-quarter of the $23 trillion in urban consumption growth projected from 2015 to 2030, and 100 cities will be responsible for 45 percent of that growth.

?Consumption and growth are now coming under pressure in many cities as population growth slows and urbanization plateaus in many countries. Six percent of large cities—most of them in developed regions—are already experiencing declining populations. However, others, particularly in emerging economies, continue to grow, and will be home to rising numbers of consumers to watch. Roughly 700 large cities in China alone will account for $7 trillion, or 30 percent, of global urban consumption growth to 2030.

Companies need to understand how shifting demographics impact their organization’s footprint. If that footprint doesn’t match the most promising consumer markets, they may need to adjust their strategy 

Knowing which cities—and even neighborhoods within cities—are home to key consumers of the future will matter. Companies need to navigate their way through arguably the most diverse consumer markets in history, managing parallel products and channels for increasingly disparate consumer groups. And, finally, the growing importance of services needs to be factored into the thinking of all consumer-facing businesses.

Eoin Treacy's view

Here is a link to the full report. 

The global birth rate peaked in the last decade so people are having fewer children and therefore will spend more on each one of them. This helps to explain why people with two children in developed cities often complain they cannot afford a third child while people in less developed countries have many more children without the same consideration. The birth rate may have peaked but if the path taken by developed countries is any guide the expenditure per child will grow. 

This is good news for companies that benefit from higher demand for branded products. With fewer children the desire to give each of them the best possible advantages in life increases. In much the same way the desire for services catering to the needs and wants of retirees is also likely to grow. With limited time people often wish to engage in the activities that have been put off for years which drives demand for higher value added services assuming of course they can afford them. 

These themes have helped to secure the cash flows of major brand names in the Dividend Aristocrat sector. The growth of their businesses, beyond their national borders and regions, as well as their history of dividend increases gives them both growth and defensive characteristics which is why so many of them were included in the original cast of Autonomies. 

The S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats Total Return Index / S&P 500 Total Return ratio surged higher in late 2015 as the wider market entered a correction. Some consolidation of that move has been underway this year, as a reversionary rally took place, but the broad pattern of dividend aristocrat outperformance remains intact.