Vancouver and market observations
Eoin Treacy's view Vancouver is a wonderful city to visit, particularly for children and those who love sushi, Cantonese, Indian or fusion dining. In a city famous for its rain we were lucky to have two dry weeks with pleasantly warm weather which allowed us to take in the area's many outdoor attractions. The drive from Vancouver to Whistler, for example, is truly breathtaking. Here are some other observations:
The local Mandarin language newspaper has a property supplement once a week. The issue Mrs. Treacy purchased was at least 3cm thick with various brokers advertising properties to potential Chinese buyers. Nothing down mortgages, high personal debt and a reliance on ultra low interest rates appear to be a feature of the Canadian property market generally. Interest rates rose from 0.25% to 1% in 2010 but have been static since September. It appears to be only a matter of time before they head higher and this will be an obstacle to the property market.
Attendees at my talk to the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts were most interested in the Eurozone debt crisis, reflecting the impact the crisis is having on sentiment globally. Greek 10yr bonds spread over Bunds have been leading to the upside since at least mid 2008 and are approaching 1600 basis points. Irish (1150 basis points) and Portuguese (1000 basis points) spreads have accelerated higher over the last two weeks as perceptions have deteriorated. Spanish and Italian spreads had been trending gradually higher over the last two years but broke upwards sharply last week. Returns to at least their pre-convergence highs near 400 and 500 basis points respectively appear to be an increasing possibility. Belgian spreads hit multi decade peaks and French spreads also broke out last week. Uncertainty about the role to be played by private institutions continues to pressure Eurozone debt markets. A Eurozone summit is imminent but it is unclear just how this situation can be ameliorated. The surge in Spanish, Italian and even French spreads is an unfortunate deterioration and will offer an increasingly stiff headwind for financial markets generally if this trend persists.
Gold and precious metal investments generally have been beneficiaries during this crisis with the yellow metal appreciating in a host of currencies. Gold shares rallied impressively over the last couple of weeks. Among the majors IAMGold and GoldCorp are among the better performers. Other constituents of the NYSE Arca Goldbugs Index of unhedged producers such as Eldorado Gold, New Gold and Harmony Gold are also worthy of mention.
Gold mine developers such as Royal Gold, Gabriel Resources, Allied Nevada, Minefinders Corp, Franco Nevada, and Kirkland Lake Gold are also among some of the better performing shares.