Visa Beats JPMorgan as Cards Wage War on Cash: Riskless Return
Comment of the Day

July 02 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Visa Beats JPMorgan as Cards Wage War on Cash: Riskless Return

This is an interesting transcript of a teleconference organised by Oppenheimer quoting NuSkin Enterprises' Truman Hunt. Here is a section:
So in terms of key indicators to look at, we would encourage you to look at executives in particular. One of the things that has significantly improved

our ability to retain distributors is that, we now have over half of our business, half of our revenue that ships automatically on a monthly recurring basis.

We love this. People give us their credit card numbers, we ship them a monthly supply so that they never have to bother to even make a phone call or talk to their distributor, it just happens automatically. And as you can imagine transitioning from less than 20% subscription to now 56% subscription based revenue, that has been improved our productivity or our retention and has definitely positively impacted our overall results.

I wanted to highlight one another thing here and it has to do with the penetration rate during our global launches. So this chart reflects the percentage of distributors who participated in the introductory offer of the ageLOC Body Spa and the R2 product at our global distributor convention that we held in the fall of 2011.

And you can see the top performing markets the penetration rate was north of 14% and in China's case 28%, obviously a very high level of distributor participation.

Eoin Treacy's view Direct sales companies fell victim to aggressive short selling in late April as rumours that David Einhorn was moving against them gained credence with his appearance on a Herbalife conference call. The subsequent decline also reflected the panicky environment at the time which had many investors on edge. Very little evidence was proffered to support the bearish hypothesis and the earnings of both Herbalife and NuSkin Enterprises have not led to any surprises.

NuSkin Enterprises was overextended relative to the 200-day MA when it posted a weekly key reversal in late March suggesting mean reversion was getting underway. However as the Herbalife story broke it dropped abruptly, breaking the progression of higher reaction lows and falling through the 200-day MA. It stabilised near $40 and rallied impressively last week to test the region of the 200-day MA. If investor confidence is to be restored, the share will need to hold above the early June on the next pullback and ideally sustain a move above the 200-day MA before eventually reasserting the medium-term uptrend.

Herbalife had been ranging in the region of $70 following an impressive advance before the proverbial “bolt from the blue” in April. That decline resulted in some deep technical damage and a short-term oversold condition. The share found support in the region of $42 from mid-May and has exhibited a mild upward bias since. However, a period of support building is probably required to allow confidence to be rebuilt. At a minimum, it will need to hold the short-term progression of higher reaction lows, if the upside is to be given the benefit of the doubt.

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