VW to Pay $5.6 Billion for Rest of Porsche in End to Saga
Volkswagen AG agreed to buy the 50.1 percent stake in Porsche SE's automotive business that it doesn't already own for 4.46 billion euros ($5.6 billion), ending a seven-year takeover saga that divided two of Germany's most powerful families.
VW was able to proceed with the transaction after reaching an agreement with German tax authorities, it said in an emailed statement late yesterday. The cash deal is based on an equity value of 3.88 billion euros and also includes what the Porsche holding company would have received in dividend payments and half of the forecast synergies from the combination.
The agreement means Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen can now fully fold the Porsche automaking business into its stable of brands, which range from Audi sedans to Ducati motorbikes.
The two companies agreed to combine in 2009 after Stuttgart- based Porsche racked up more than 10 billion euros of debt in an unsuccessful attempt to take over Europe's largest carmaker.
“It's very positive for VW as they get 50 percent of an asset they value at 26 billion euros on their own books for 4.46 billion euros,” said Erich Hauser, a Credit Suisse analyst in London. “If I was a Porsche shareholder, I'd feel slightly short changed though.”
Volkswagen gained as much as 5.75 euros, or 4.5 percent, to 133.75 euros and was up 4 percent as of 9:13 a.m. in Frankfurt trading. The shares have climbed 15 percent this year, valuing the carmaker at 59 billion euros. The Porsche SE holding company's stock rose as much as 5.8 percent and was up 3.4 percent to 43.42 euros, giving it a market value of 13.3 billion euros.
Eoin Treacy's view Volkswagen shares became the playthings
of short sellers during the financial crisis only to rally spectacularly when
lent shares were called back; forcing one of the biggest short covering rallies
in history. Following a very brief sojourn as the most valuable company in the
world Volkswagen collapsed back into relative obscurity before bottoming in
2010 and ranging mostly above €100
since early 2011. The share has held a progression of higher reaction lows since
October and a sustained move below €110 would now be required to question
additional potential for higher to lateral ranging.
More
generally, the automotive sector has endured a difficult 6 months as the perception
of global growth deteriorated. China's economy is particularly relevant since
the sector depends on the country for the majority of its growth. Among European
manufacturers BMW, Daimler,
Audi, Volvo
and Renault have held progressions of
higher reaction lows since October and potential for additional higher to lateral
ranging can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided they continue
to hold above their recent lows. Fiat
retested its October low in May and has returned to test the region of the 200-day
MA. It will need to sustain a move above this trend mean to confirm a return
to demand dominance beyond the short term. Peugeot
Citroen has lost momentum following a steep decline over the last year but
a sustained move above €8.25 will be required to break the progression
of lower rally highs and suggest swifter mean reversion.
In
the USA, Ford and General
Motors encountered resistance in the region of the 200-day MA from February
and has returned to test the region of the October low. Clear upward dynamics
will be required to confirm support in this area. Tesla
Motors will need to hold its progression of higher reaction lows if the
medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
The
strength of the Yen has offered an additional headwind for the Japanese car
industry. While the majority of companies have either been ranging or trending
lower, there are signs that demand may be returning to dominance for at least
some. Honda, Nissan,
Suzuki and Toyota
recently found support above their respective late 2011 lows and sustained moves
below their June lows will be required to question potential for additional
higher to lateral ranging. Toyota in particular is outperforming. Mitsubishi
has been a laggard, but found at least short-term support in June. However,
it will need to sustain a move above the 200-day MA to begin to suggest more
than temporary steadying.
Elsewhere
in Asia, Maruti Suzuki India rallied
to break the more than two-year progression of lower rally highs from January
and found support in the region of the MA in June. A sustained move below INR1055
would now be required to question potential for additional upside. Tata
Motors had become overextended relative to the 200-day MA when it encountered
resistance near INR 320. It pulled back sharply and has paused in the region
of the 200-day MA over the last month. It will need to hold above the June low
if the benefit of the doubt it to be given the upside. Hero
MotoCorp has been mostly rangebound, albeit with an upward bias over the
few years. A sustained move below INR 1800 would be required to question medium-term
scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.
In
South Korea, Hyundai has held a progression
of higher reaction lows since late 2008; finding support in the region of the
200-day MA on successive occasions. It has returned to test the MA and will
need to continue to find support in this region if the broad consistency of
the more than three-year advance is to remain intact. Kia
Motors lost momentum following an impressive accelerated advance from April
2011. The share has held the majority of the advance but a large broadening
pattern following such an impressive earlier advance is not confidence inspiring.
It will need to hold above KRW70000 if the medium-term upside is to continue
to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Greatwall
Motors is the best performing of the Chinese automakers. It continues to
consolidate mostly above the 2011 high in a steady mean reversion. Provided
it continues to hold above HK$13 the benefit of the doubt can continue to be
given the upside. Geely Automotive found
at least short-term support in the region of the 200-day MA from early June.
Yulon Motor has rallied to test the
declining 200-day MA but will need to sustain a move above it to suggest a return
to demand dominance beyond the short term. Dongfeng
Motor Group and Shanghai Auto have
returned to test the lower side of their respective multi-month ranges where
they will need to find support if supply dominance is to be questioned.