Weekend Reading
Comment of the Day

September 24 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Weekend Reading

Thanks to a subscriber for this list of reports contributed in the spirit of Empowerment Through Knowledge.

Weekend Reading - Thanks to a subscriber for this list of reports contributed in the spirit of Empowerment Through Knowledge.

Fed: "The Effect of Foreclosures on Nearby Housing Prices: Supply or Disamenity?"


BdE: "CREDITOR DISCRIMINATION DURING SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS"


OECD: "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt"


IMF/ILO: "The Challenges of Growth, Employment and Social Cohesion"


BdF: "The art of central banking of the ECB and the separation principle"


"Bank of England Interest Rate Announcements and the Foreign Exchange Market"


Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission: "GOVERNMENTAL RESCUES OF "TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL" FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS"


IMF: "Bank Capital and Uncertainty"


"MEASURING THE OUTPUT RESPONSES TO FISCAL POLICY"


OECD: "Debt Markets: Policy Challenges in the Post-Crisis Landscape"


Buba: "NAIRU estimates for Germany: new evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off"


ECB: "Major public debt reductions: Lessons from the past, lessons for the future"


Fed: Some Initial Results from the New Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey On Dealer Financing Terms


Fed: "Inflation, Taylor Rules, Greenspan-Bernanke Years"

Eoin Treacy's view There is a great deal of interest in this set of reports but I thought particularly illustrative of Bundesbank opinion was this excerpt from the ECB report on "Major public debt reduction":

"Our findings suggest that, first, major debt reductions are mainly driven by decisive and lasting (rather than timid and short-lived) fiscal consolidation efforts focused on reducing government expenditure, in particular, cuts in social benefits and public wages. Second, robust real GDP growth also increases the likelihood of a major debt reduction because it helps countries to "grow their way out" of indebtedness. Third, high debt servicing costs play a disciplinary role strengthened by market forces and require governments to set up credible plans to stop and reverse the increasing debt ratios."

For those in countries currently undergoing massive fiscal consolidation this might be interpreted as: reform, don't do it again and let the higher price you are currently paying for credit be a cautionary lesson about the repercussions of your actions. This is a harsh line to take following a crisis that just about every financial institution in Europe had a hand in creating. Core Eurozone banks extended billions to the periphery without the necessary due diligence one would normally require with such actions. The result, like it or not, is that they are not in a symbiotic relationship where if one goes down it will have a major repercussion for the rest. Reform might be needed in the periphery but it is just as necessary within the core if such disasters are to be avoided in future.

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