Weekend Reading
"Pioneering Price Level Targeting: the Swedish Experience 1931-37"
IMF: "Impact of Regulatory Reforms on Large and Complex Financial Institutions"
"Presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee"
Fed: "Determinants and Consequences of Mortgage Default"
World Bank: "China: global crisis avoided, robust economic growth sustained"
MNB: "Is exchange rate - customer order flow relationship linear? Evidence from the Hungarian FX market"
Fed: "The Greek Crisis: Argentina Revisited?"
RBNZ: "Does the Kiwi fly when the Kangaroo jumps? The effect of Australian macroeconomic news on the New Zealand dollar"
ECB: "How much does the Public know about the ECB's Monetary Policy? Evidence from a survey of Dutch Households"
Fed: "Homeownership for the Long Run: An Analysis of Homeowner Subsidies"
Eoin Treacy's view These reports highlight two impressive movers over the last few weeks. The Argentine stock market consolidated in the region of the previous peak for the better part of a year and successfully broke upwards in late September. It has since accelerated impressively for 10 consecutive weeks and is now overextended relative to the 200-day MA. The first clear downward dynamic is likely to signal the onset of the next mean reversion correction.
The New Zealand Dollar has rallied impressively over the last few weeks and is now testing the 2007/08 high near 80¢. While some consolidation of recent gains may be expected in the region of the previous high, a sustained move below 75c would be required to check medium-term upside potential.