Eoin Treacy's view

Fed: “Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences” 

This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not focus exclusively on point forecast performance. It also examines density forecasts, as well as methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process. 

BoF: “What is the role of Emerging Asia in global oil prices?” 

This paper studies the effects of demand shocks caused by Emerging Asian (EMA) countries on oil prices over the past two decades, using vector auto regression models. The analysis builds on previous work done on identifying different types of oil shocks using structural time series methods. However, uniquely, this paper introduces a commodity demand indicator for EMA economies that is based on data independent of oil production and consumption data, thus properly accounting for oil demand pressures stemming from macroeconomic conditions in the EMA economies and the rest of the world. The analysis strongly suggests that EMA demand shocks have had a persistent and statistically significant effect on the level and variation of global oil prices over the past two decades. This result differs from some of the previous literature and hence proves that the choice of oil demand indicator in an oil-market VAR makes a material difference for the results. Furthermore, tentative evidence suggests that the effect of EMA demand is mainly driven by demand dynamics in China. The results of the benchmark model are robust to different sample periods and to variations in the definition of the oil demand indicators, as well as to an alternative identification strategy based on sign restrictions. 
  
BoJ: “Confidence Erosion and Herding Behavior in Bond Markets: An Essay on Central Bank Communication Strategy” 

This paper examines the distinctive behavior of long-term interest rates observed after the Bank of Japan’s introduction of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, by focusing on changes in traders’ confidence and herding behavior. When participants in bond markets lose confidence in their outlook for future interest rates, their investment decision depends heavily on the developments of market prices. This often leads to herding behavior among traders and destabilizes market prices: demand fuels further demand, or supply fuels further supply. This study develops a theoretical model and employs it for stochastic simulations to show that volatility of bond prices and trading volumes is affected by a number of factors, such as investors’ confidence in the financial environment, the usefulness or value of information available in the market, and the market liquidity of bonds. In addition, the model is fitted to actual data to specify the driving forces underlying the changes in long-term interest rate volatility observed in 2013. The analysis shows that the key to understanding the developments in long-term interest rates during this period lies in how traders interpreted information flows in the market, especially the announcement by the Bank of Japan regarding its policy change, and in capturing the extent to which their confidence was weakened or strengthened by those information flows. The findings of the analysis highlight the importance of formulating a communication strategy as part of the conduct of monetary policy and the challenges in implementing such a strategy. 
  
RBA: “Financial Reform in Australia and China” 

This paper describes the Australian experience of domestic financial deregulation, capital account liberalisation and the float of the exchange rate, and provides a comparison to China’s current efforts to reform its own financial system. In doing so, it considers similarities and differences in the circumstances facing the two economies. Australia’s financial reforms were essential, in the longer term, for building a stronger economy and more robust financial system, but the paper does not interpret the Australian experience as a prescription for financial reform in China. Indeed, the specific sequencing of deregulation that occurred in Australia might not be optimal in a Chinese context, although it is likely that the reforms themselves, pursued with appropriate caution, would have long-run benefits for the Chinese economy. 
  
OECD: “The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on OECD Potential Output” 

This paper estimates potential output losses from the global financial crisis by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends. Among the 19 OECD countries which experienced a banking crisis over the period 2007-11, the median loss in potential output in 2014 is estimated to be 3¾ per cent, compared to 2¾ per cent among all OECD countries. The crisis hit does, however, vary widely across countries, being more than 10% for several smaller European, mainly euro area, countries. The largest adverse effects come from lower trend productivity, which is a combination of both lower total factor productivity and lower capital per worker. Despite large increases in structural unemployment in some countries, the contribution of lower potential employment to the crisis hit is limited because the adverse effect on labour force participation is generally much less than might have been expected on the basis of previous severe downturns. This may partly reflect pension reforms and a tightening up of early retirement pathways. Pre-crisis conditions relating to over-heating and financial excesses, including high inflation, high investment, large current account deficits, low real interest rates, high total economy indebtedness and more rapid growth in capital-per-worker are all correlated with larger post-crisis potential output losses. This suggests that underlying the potential output losses was a substantial misallocation of resources, especially of capital, in the pre-crisis boom period. On the other hand, more competition-friendly product market regulation is associated with smaller crisis-related losses of potential output, suggesting it facilitates a reallocation of resources across firms and sectors in the aftermath of an adverse shock and so helps to mitigate its consequences. 
  
HKMA: “Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis” 

BIS: “Central bank views on foreign exchange intervention” 

This note reviews central banks’ views on the objectives, methods and effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention, according to their responses to a survey questionnaire. Due to the recent global financial crisis, objectives have shifted to focus more on curbing capital flows and exchange rate volatility. Central banks prefer less transparent intervention practices, which they time by monitoring the most liquid segments of the market. Interventions are often perceived as being successful in achieving the desired objective. Combining intervention with macroprudential and capital control measures may have contributed to recent successes. Besides analysing these and more findings of this year’s meeting, this paper compares them to the results of the last survey from 2004. 
  
BdE: “Structural Reforms in a Debt Overhang” 

We assess the effects of reforms in product and labor markets in a model economy featuring credit restrictions and pre-existing long-term debt. Both elements, which are core features of the current scenario faced by some euro area countries, combine to produce a slow and protracted deleveraging of the private sector and a persistent recession following a negative financial shock. In this environment, we show that product and labor market reforms may stimulate output and employment even in the short run, despite their deflationary effects. Furthermore, by favoring a faster recovery of investment and collateral values, product market reforms bring forward the end of deleveraging and the exit from recession. 
  
Are there Differences in the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan over Time? 

Abstract. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with a new sign restriction framework, we study the changing effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's Quantitative Easing policies over time. We analyse the Zero-Interest Rate Policy from 1999 to 2000, the Quantitative Easing Policy from 2001 to 2006, and most recently the `Abenomics' monetary policy easing strategy. Our results indicate that there are important differences concerning the effects of Quantitative Easing over time. We find a stronger and longer lasting positive influence of QE shocks on real GDP and CPI especially since 2013. This might reflect the influence of the `Abenomics' program. 
  
Fed: “Swiss Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons for the Transmission of Quantitative Easing” 
 
We analyze the reaction of long-term government bond yields to announcements by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to implement unconventional monetary policy initiatives during the summer of 2011. Since these policies included an expansion of central bank reserves without any purchases of long-term securities, they provide novel insights into the transmission mechanism of quantitative easing. Using dynamic term structure models, we decompose the response of Swiss government bond yields into changes to expectations about future short-term interest rates and term premiums. We find that the declines in yields following the announcements of the reserve expansions reflected reduced term premiums, whereas expectations about future short-term rates changed little. We interpret this as evidence that expansions of reserves by themselves can give rise to portfolio balance effects. 
  
Fed: “The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market” 
 
In the United States, 15 percent of households change residence in a given year. This result is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on gross flows within and between the two segments of the housing market—renter-occupied properties and owner-occupied properties. The gross flows between these two segments are four times larger than the net flows. From a secular perspective, housing turnover exhibits a hump-shaped pattern between 1970 and 2000, which this paper attributes to changes in the age composition of the U.S. population. At higher frequencies, housing turnover is pro-cyclical and tends to lead the business cycle and real house prices. By taking a two-segment view of the U.S. housing market and by carefully documenting the empirics of turnover within and between these segments, the paper provides important moments for and gives empirical guidance to the design, calibration, and evaluation of micro-founded, dynamic, and quantitative models of the U.S. housing market.