Nearly $200bn worth of projects were delayed or cancelled post the 2008 credit crisis.

Gaping hole in mine supply expected during 2010-13, but oversupply by 2015 likely

We could be on the verge of a mega commodity bull market. Is inflation roaring back?

300mt or 32% of iron ore capacity delayed till 2014. Severe shortages anticipated in 2011.

3.5mt or 18% of copper capacity delayed till 2014. Consumers destocked in a tight market.

Thermal coal supply will likely miss targets as generating capacity grows in India and China.

Mongolia is a big winner in coking coal but not likely to impact prices near term.

Capex (copper, coal, iron ore) is likely to peak in 2013 at $60bn.

Mining equipment suppliers are likely to benefit.

Eoin Treacy's view Industrial commodity prices have pulled back over the last month but have for the most part sustained the majority of the prior advance. (Also see yesterday's Comment of the Day). The credit crisis resulted in large numbers of projects being cancelled which means that if global growth remains positive, supply could well become an issue once more. It takes time to build or expand mining facilities particularly in less advantaged areas of the world and the cancellation of investment in green field projects means the delivery date for new supply has been pushed farther out. This inability to increase supply could mirror the Supply Inelasticity Meets Rising Demand environment evident from 2003 to 2008 where demand outstripped available supply by a large margin.

Right now, most investors are simply not interested in looking at the supply side of the commodity equation because they are focusing on the demand element, specifically in the USA and Europe, despite the fact that demand in the rest of the world remains on a healthy growth trajectory. This is reasonably understandable given the pricing in of something akin to a worst case scenario in the bond markets. However, if the current bearish sentiment proves to be too polarised, and this remains a realistic possibility, any further sell-off would provide investors with a sound buying opportunity in what remains a volatile sector best bought on inevitable reactions.