Wheat futures rose the most in two weeks on renewed concern that dry weather in the U.S. Great Plains will hurt the early development of winter crops.

Growing areas in the central and southern Plains for the hard red-winter variety will get "minimal to non-existent" rainfall in the next 14 days, Chicago-based QT Weather said today in a report. About 47 percent of the U.S. wheat crop was rated good to excellent in the week ended Oct. 24, down from 62 percent a year earlier, the Department of Agriculture said yesterday.

"If you just look at the drought monitor map, it shows how abnormally dry they are in southwest Oklahoma, western Kansas and eastern Colorado," said Tom Leffler, the owner of Leffler Commodities LLC in Augusta, Kansas. "I've driven through part of that country, and it's dry."

David Fuller's view This continues to be a perfect storm for global agriculture. If these trends continue, it will mean higher commodity price inflation, which is bearish for bonds and would eventually hit global share prices.

Wheat (weekly & daily) started the advance in the grain and bean complex when Russia's summer crop shrivelled in the record heat wave. Subsequently it has underperformed following the spike peak (a Type-1 trend ending as taught at The Chart Seminar, of at least medium-term significance). However, it is unlikely that this bull run ended in just over a month, given the underlying base. The current range is most likely the first step above the base formation. A break under the early-October low would be required to challenge this hypothesis.