The world still has a large buffer of wheat stockpiles, and top shipper Russia continues to export its own bumper crop to world markets. About 33 million tons of crops were shipped to global destinations under the pact, including about 17 million tons of corn and nine million tons of wheat. The top destination was China, followed by Spain, Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands.

Elsewhere, lack of rains and heat are threatening crops in parts of the US and southern Europe, increasing risks to food supplies. Still, wheat futures have fallen by almost half from the record reached in March last year to $7.10 a bushel. That compares with an average of $5.82 over the past 10 years.

Eoin Treacy's view

We are entering a new phase of the war because both Moscow and Odessa are now targets for missile/drone strikes. The efforts to allow Ukraine export grain were aimed at ensuring buyers would have enough to eat. That has also been a central point in how well Russia has secured support from regional governments. The obvious escalation would be to bomb Russia’s export facilities through the Black Sea to both level the playing field and increase the urgency of negotiations.

Wheat and other grains prices continue to rebound from the upper side of their respective base formations.

The Invesco Agriculture ETF is on the cusp of breaking out to new recovery highs.

The one sector which has been completely unaffected by sanctions is nuclear fuel. Several east European countries have appealed for sanctions on those exports. The harsh reality is Russian nuclear fuel is powering Europe and the USA’s reactors at a time when reliance on Russian gas has declined.

The Sprott Uranium fund has been ranging with a mild upward bias since the initial surge that greeted its introduction. An additional bullish catalyst will be required to fuel an additional rally.

Following up on my piece from Friday on the absence of tourists in Killarney this summer, I gained additional intelligence over the weekend. 3000 Ukrainian refugees are being housed in the town’s hotels. The Irish government has a duty of care for the people it brought in and the hotels needed a boost after the privation of the pandemic. It’s a win/win for the parties concerned. However, the net result is the cost of vacant hotel accommodation has doubled. That is a disincentive for travelers who may be feeling the pinch from higher rates.