White House, Kremlin Seal Treaty on Nuclear-Weapons Cuts
Comment of the Day

April 06 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

White House, Kremlin Seal Treaty on Nuclear-Weapons Cuts

This article by Jonathan Weisman and Richard Boudreaux for the Wall Street Journal, dated March 27th may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The accord, a follow-on to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty that expired in December, would cap deployed warheads at 1,550, 30% below the Moscow treaty of 2007 and 74% below START. Deployed ballistic missiles and bombers would be limited to 700, less than half the START levels. Another 100 launchers could be deployed with conventional weapons, a concession to the U.S., which has converted some of its Trident submarines to non-nuclear use

Eoin Treacy's view The demand side of the bullish uranium argument remains very much intact with the continued development of new reactors as global demand for energy trends steadily higher. However, the supply side of the equation is more debatable.

The bull market in uranium prices that peaked in 2007 succeeded in attracting inward investment for new mines and increased supply. If the current round of nuclear arsenal reduction talks are successful they could also contribute new supply as weapons are reprocessed into fuel for reactors. This could weigh on uranium and related company share prices.

Cameco fell below it 200-day moving average in January and encountered resistance near C$31 in February. The share broke downwards last week but found at least short-term support yesterday. However, a sustained move above C$28 is needed to break the short-term progression of lower rally highs while a sustained move back above C$30 would suggest that demand has returned to medium-term dominance.

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