Fortunately, Morris is a lucid thinker and a fine writer. He uses a minimum of academic jargon and is possessed of a welcome sense of humor that helps him guide us through this grand game of history as if he were an erudite sportscaster. He shows us how different empires were boosted by periods of "axial thought" to surge up the development ladder, only to crumble upon hitting a "hard ceiling," usually inflicted by what he calls the Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse: climate change, migration, famine, epidemic and state failure.

But failure of one civilization only allowed another to arise somewhere else. The Roman Empire, Song dynasty China, Renaissance Europe and the Britain of the Industrial Revolution came along, got lift under their wings from new technology, social innovation or a creative organizing principle and pushed the whole process of development forward another notch.

According to Morris's scorecard, since this age-old process began, the world index of social development has risen to 900 points. And, he predicts, in the next 100 years this index will rise an additional 4,000 points. He calls such progress "staggering."

But with the West's power and confidence now declining, and China's authoritarian form of capitalism ripsawing its way toward an ever more dominant position in the world, a reader may be forgiven for becoming somewhat impatient. Is Morris ever going to answer the "burning question"? Who will win the next phase of our East-West horse race, the United States or China?

Finally, Morris surprises us. He duly acknowledges that "patterns established in the past suggest that the shift of wealth and power from West to East is inexorable" and that we may even be moving from "bankrupt America to thriving China." But what really concerns him, it turns out, is not whether the West may be bested by the East, but whether mankind's Promethean collective developmental abilities may not end up being our common undoing.

The competition that East and West have been pursuing for so long, Morris warns, is about to be disrupted by some powerful forces. Nuclear proliferation, population growth, global epidemics and climate change are in the process of radically altering old historical patterns. "We are approaching the greatest discontinuity in history," he says.

David Fuller's view Although the title may already be dated, this sounds like an absorbing book, of some relevance in terms of our long-term investment strategies.

Regarding Ian Morris' "Five Horsemen of the Apocalypse", state failure is the most frequent cause of problems, in my view. But let us not overlook state success. As a long-term optimist and I trust also realist, based on evidence briefly summarised in the short video which I posted last Thursday - 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes - life expectancy and wealth creation have never seen better times.

Nevertheless climate change could certainly have the potential to be a game changer, unleashing Morris' other Horsemen.

We live in interesting times.