Almost 1 billion people around the world don't get enough to eat. Climate change, which is already contributing to food-price increases in poor and prosperous countries alike, promises to make it even harder to feed a growing population.

The world produces enough food to provide its 7 billion people with the roughly 2,700 caloriesthey need daily. But agriculture and food supplies are highly vulnerable to the extreme weather that comes with climate change. As the population grows -- it might reach 10 billion by 2050 -- the world will need to boost farm productivity and solve logistical impediments that make it hard to get food to those who need it.

Consider how weather can affect food prices. The three years in the past two decades when global food costs were highest all occurred after 2007, according to the United Nations. These increases have coincided with droughts in one or more of the world's major food-producing regions. This year is on pace to be the warmest ever, exceeding records set in 2005 and 2010; the drought in the U.S. Midwest this summer is a big reason corn prices are at record highs.

Numerous studies also suggest that rising temperatures during the spring and summer growing seasons are reducing crop yields. This is on top of the damage done by increasingly frequent droughts, floods and freezes. A study by Oxfam predicts that if current temperature patterns persist, by 2030 corn prices may surge by 177 percent and wheat by 120 percent; rice might double.

David Fuller's view While this Bloomberg editorial on food supplies makes an opening meal of climate change - perhaps forgivable on the eve of the big storm named 'Sandy' that is currently pouring plenty of water on the greater New York City area and heading towards New England - it also has some sensible points on increasing food production around the globe.


Yes, we have had some extremes of heat and drought in the USA and parts of Europe in the last three years, but it would be premature to call that a 'new normal' in terms of climate change influences, not least because crop conditions remained reasonably favourable in many other parts of the globe.

We know this because a monthly chart of the Dow Jones UBS Agriculture Index has been rangebound for most of the history dating back to 1991, when it appears to have been launched. On an inflation-adjusted basis this chart would be in the middle to lower side of its range, despite US droughts.

Moreover, while global temperatures have been edging higher for a number of years, this is by no means all bad for food production. Think how much worse it would be if we had global cooling, and not just for agriculture.

Where are we headed? Let's take a look at some internationally traded agriculture commodity charts.

Sugar, which is found in most prepared foods, has been in an overall downtrend since its peak in February 2011. It is approaching a test of this year's earlier lows where another upward dynamic is required to reaffirm support in this region. Moreover, it needs to break decisively above the last lower high and the 200-day MA, both near 22¢, to break the overall downtrend and signal higher scope.

Cocoa rallied from the lower side of its range between June and early September but was unable to maintain its upward break from the prior trading range. It is also trading in the lower half of its range for the last five years.

Arabica Coffee fell persistently back to the area of lateral support near 150¢ which launched its last bull run over two years ago. It experienced a mean reversion rally towards the declining MA but has fallen back once again and another upward dynamic is required to reaffirm underlying support and to suggest base formation development.

Cotton, obviously not a food but an agricultural commodity, managed to avoid drought damage, judging from its low prices throughout the US summer season, and has remained rangebound subsequently. It requires a sustained break above 80¢ to indicate higher scope.

Orange Juice briefly spiked higher earlier this year on weather related supply concerns before plunging back to the upper side of its former base formation. Another upward dynamic is required to provide further evidence that a new base is forming.

Corn was one of the US staple crops most affected by drought this year. Shortages remain a major problem but at least the price seems to have peaked in the $8 region once again. However, good South American crops are now required to replenish supplies somewhat.

Soybeans also soared during the US drought before falling back to the upper side of their previous range where some steadying has occurred. The Brazilian and Argentinean crops are now crucial for global supplies. With the planting season just beginning moisture levels appear satisfactory.

Wheat has ranged slightly lower following its five-week surge during the US drought season. In the absence of another upward dynamic we can probably expect some further easing.

Rough Rice is arguably the world's most important agricultural crop. Prices remain rangebound pending further crop developments.