Yen Slumps Most in Six Weeks Versus Dollar on Economy Concern
The yen weakened the most in six weeks versus the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the economy is in a "very severe" state, fueling bets monetary policy may be eased further.
The Japanese currency declined against all 16 of its most- actively traded peers. The euro gained for a second day against the dollar as European finance officials meeting in Brussels endorsed a bailout for Portugal, boosting confidence that the region's debt crisis will be contained.
"Long-term investors see more yen weakness ahead," said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. "Central banks around the world are raising rates, except Japan. There's potential for more easing-type measures. The market is getting a sense of this."
The Japanese currency declined 1.1 percent to 81.67 per dollar as of 10:41 a.m. in London, its steepest depreciation since April 1, based on closing prices. The yen weakened to 115.95 per euro from 114.37 in New York yesterday. The European common currency rose 3 percent to $1.4200.
Eoin Treacy's view Multilateral intervention announced in March signaled a change to the Bank of
Japan's attitude to the strength of the Yen. The currency weakened and unwound
the abrupt rally which followed the tsunami. Over the last month, the Yen rallied
as investors began to question the commitment of G7 central banks to weaken
the currency particularly as concerns over Eurozone sovereign debt took centre
stage. However, Japan's economy remains in crisis. The nuclear accident will
take time to fix. Alternative power capacity will have to be made available
and the country's exporters will take time to return production to normal levels.
Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.
Today's
downward dynamic by the Yen, across a range of currency pairs, signals a peak
of at least short-term significance and potentially medium-term importance.
Additional follow through will be required to confirm the signal and defray
the possibility that this was a one-day event. Against the US
Dollar, the Yen rallied to test the upper side of the six-month range and
appears to have encountered resistance. A sustained move above the early May
peak would be required to question potential for some additional downside.
The Yen
has not been as strong against the Euro
and has posted a progression of lower or equal major rally highs since August.
Today's downward dynamic suggests at least a short-term peak has been reached
and a sustained move above 0.88 would now be required to question potential
for some additional downside.
The Yen
lost momentum against the Pound
a year ago and has trended downwards since January. It encountered resistance
near 0.77 this week and a sustained move above that level would be required
to question potential for some additional lower to lateral ranging.
The Yen
has trended consistently lower against the Swiss
Franc for the last year. It appears to be encountering
resistance in the region of CHF1.1 and a sustained move above that level would
be required to question current scope for some additional weakness.
The Yen
has been largely rangebound against the Singapore
Dollar since early 2009 but has exhibited a downward bias over the last
year. It has at least paused near S$1.55 over the last few weeks and a sustained
move above that level would be required to question current scope for some additional
downside.
With
the exception of the brief post tsunami rally, the Yen has trended relatively
consistently lower against the Australian
Dollar over the last year. It now appears to be in the process of encountering
resistance near A$1.20 and a sustained move above that level would be required
to question potential for additional weakness.
David
has often said that happiness in the currency markets is when we have the trend
and the central bank on our side. In the competitive world of globalization
no country wants a strong currency but some need a weak one more than others
and at present Japan is the top of that list. The commonality of the Yen's weakness
this week suggests that the currency may once more becoming the subject of bearish
interest. Countermanding upward dynamics would be required to question current
scope for some additional weakness.