Yields for stock market indices
David Fuller's view November has been a poor month for stock market indices, so far, with many giving 
 up a chunk of October's gains, and more in some instances, mainly within greater 
 Europe. 
With 
 most commentators understandably focussing on Europe's sovereign debt crisis, 
 sentiment has deteriorated with each down day for stock markets. "No way 
 out" seems to be the prevailing view. 
Can this 
 be true for a debt crisis? Yes, in theory, but veteran subscribers will have 
 observed that in markets the crowd's worst fears are seldom realised. 
Discussing 
 this with Eoin this morning, he said: The time to discount worst case scenarios 
 is at the top of the market." In other words, when things seem almost too 
 good to be true, they probably are. 
Since 
 it can be difficult to remain objective in an overextended bull trend, we need 
 factual technical criteria, which cannot be dismissed with fanciful interpretation. 
 The clearest and most timely technical evidence of risk in a maturing bull trend 
 will be a large overextension relative to the rising 200-day moving average, 
 signalling crowd euphoria. 
Veteran 
 subscribers will have seen this on many occasions. When it next occurs, we need 
 to remember that wealth is realised in up markets. 
More 
 recently, we have seen downside overextensions relative to declining 200-day 
 moving averages for many stock market indices, not least in early October. Those 
 were at least partially corrected by last month's powerful rally. 
However, 
 this month's stock market decline is creating new oversold readings. We also 
 have rising yields which are at historically attractive levels for many indices. 
 They can become even more attractive in the event of another wave of panic selling 
 but those who wait for worst case scenarios to be realised miss out more often 
 than not. We need to remember that wealth is created in down markets.
Some 
 will argue that dividends are vulnerable during an economic decline. This is 
 true and among individual shares we need to be wary of the highest yields, especially 
 if those companies are largely dependent on revenue generated in a weak domestic 
 economy.
However, 
 rising corporate profits, not least for the successful Autonomies, shows that 
 many companies have adapted well to the slow growth environment in the west. 
 Eoin has frequently reviewed these companies and we will continue to like them 
 while their share prices trend to the left of rising 200-day moving averages.
Meanwhile, 
 for price perspective relative to the MAs, plus current yields, here are the 
 main stock market indices for individual countries and territories: 
Asia 
 - Pacific
 Australia 5.00%, China 
 2.03%, Hong Kong 3.75%, India 
 1.60%, Indonesia 2.17%, Japan 
 2.68, Korea 1.59%, Malaysia 
 3.43%, Pakistan 6.15%, Philippines 
 3.36%, Singapore 4.12%, Taiwan 
 4.87%, Thailand 3.73% and Vietnam 
 4.84%.
Western 
 Europe
 Austria 4.33%, Belgium 
 4.96%, France 5.27%, Germany 
 4.43%, Ireland 2.24%, Luxembourg 
 4.19%, Netherlands 4.25%, Switzerland 
 2.81% and United Kingdom 4.24%.
Northern 
 & Southern Europe
 Denmark 1.50%, Finland 
 6.21%, Norway 5.74%, Sweden 
 4.75%, Cyprus 3.87%, Greece 
 4.79%, Italy 5.82%, Portugal 
 10.28 and Spain 6.20%.
Eastern 
 Europe
 Croatia 4.14%, Czech 
 Republic 7.41%, Hungary 2.50%, 
 Poland 4.34%, Russia 
 2.45%, Slovenia 4.01% and Turkey 
 3.06%.
Middle 
 East & Africa
 Bahrain 5.41%, Egypt 
 5.90%, Israel 4.08%, Kuwait 
 3.33%, Qatar 4.16%, Saudi 
 Arabia 3.64%, Abu Dhabi 4.17%, Botswana 
 5.85%, Kenya 5.85%, Nigeria 
 4.23% and South Africa 3.05%.
North 
 America
 Canada 2.94% and United 
 States 2.27%.
Latin 
 America
 Argentina 5.28%, Brazil 
 4.43%, Chile 2.8%, Colombia 
 2.42%, Mexico 1.49% and Peru 
 5.00%.
Conclusion 
 - The number of attractive yields available confirms 
 value in many stock markets and should help to cushion downside risk. However, 
 stock market indices are retreating beneath their top formations. While short-term 
 oversold conditions are evident, major stock markets led by the USA have yet 
 to confirm support from the September to early-October lows. This will require 
 clear upward dynamics and eventual breaks above the October to early-November 
 highs. Where indices have broken beneath the year's earlier lows - this is mainly 
 in Europe - downtrends have been reconfirmed and rebounds are required to question 
 trend consistency.
In other 
 words, it is still up to the bulls to prove that this cyclical bear market is 
 ending or over.
 
 
 
 
					
				
		
		 
					