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David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Global Middle Class

Email of the day on contrasting life experience between generations

When I read that high house prices are a problem for the younger generation, I wonder whether the historical context is considered. I bought my first house in 1974 and I finally paid off the mortgage on my current home in1999. Over the 25 years that I had a mortgage the lowest interest rate I ever paid was 10% and the highest was 15%. Yes, for a quarter century I paid 10-15% interest on my mortgage, which frequently used up more than half my monthly income. Many of my age group went through a similar experience. My wife and I hardly ever ate out, and our children were treated to many years of cheap camping holidays. I had little spare cash at any time until the mortgage was gone.

Do today's new home buyers have any idea how we lived and struggled with finances? House prices today mirror the very low mortgage interest rate and I suspect that very few (if any) 20-40 year olds are using 50% or more of their income to pay their mortgage as we did. Their money goes on things we could not afford and did not regard as essentials. It's a matter of priorities.



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The FDA Wants a Covid-19 Vaccine That Really Works

This article by Max Nisen for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The path the FDA outlines is a long one. It’s going to take a while to recruit and enroll 30,000 people in a trial and give half of them two shots in the arm — as Moderna Therapeutics Inc. intends to do to test its candidate. And until a sufficient number of subjects in the placebo arm of such a trial contract Covid-19, there won’t be any firm results. Any number of variables could cause further delays: bad luck, a poor vaccine performance, or slowing case growth.

The FDA is by no means ignoring the urgency of the moment. Its guidance includes a variety of concessions on safety data and other issues that are meant to speed the process. But the world can be grateful the agency is willing to bend only so far.
 



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'Build, Build, Build' for U.K. Virus Recovery, Says Johnson

This article by Alex Morales and Tim Ross may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

The 5 billion pounds Johnson allocated to hospital maintenance, school repairs and road improvements on Tuesday is not new money and is a fraction of the infrastructure spending announced in March.

What Our Economists Say:
“There was a lot of inevitable political bluster in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s speech today, but for the economy there were two key takeaways. First, his pledge to accelerate 5 billion pounds worth of capital projects is money already allocated in the March Budget. He left plans for any further stimulus to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s update on the economy next week. Second, Johnson distanced himself from a quick return to austerity. That’s good news for the outlook.”

--Dan Hanson. For the full insight, click here

Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the country’s biggest business lobby, the Confederation of British Industry, described the intervention as “first steps” only.

“Foundations are there to be built on,” Fairbairn said in a statement. “More is needed to prevent the uneven scarring unemployment leaves on communities.”

She called for more details on Johnson’s guarantee of apprenticeships and in-work placements for younger workers, as well as an extension of wage support to protect jobs and more funding for “future skills in high-potential areas such as digital, low carbon and health.”

Johnson described the planning reforms as the most “radical” since World War II. They include greater freedom for developers to change the use of buildings and land in town centers without planning permission, and would make it easier to convert unused commercial buildings into homes, his office said in a briefing.



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Australian lawmaker says he isn't a suspect in China probe

This article by Rod McGuirk for APNews may be of interest. Here is a section:

The secret service, best known as ASIO, confirmed in a statement that “search warrant activity occurred in Sydney on Friday as part of an ongoing investigation,” but would not comment on Moselmane or its involvement.

Less than two weeks ago, Morrison said that a “sophisticated state-based cyber actor” was targeting Australia in an escalating cyber campaign that was threatening all levels of government, businesses, essential services and critical infrastructure.

Most analysts said Morrison was referring to China, but the prime minister would not name the country.

Already high tensions between Australia and China have been raised by the pandemic.

China in recent weeks has banned beef exports from Australia’s largest abattoirs, ended trade in Australian barley with a tariff wall and warned its citizens against visiting Australia. The measures have been interpreted by many as punishment for Australia’s advocacy of an independent probe into the origins and spread of the coronavirus.

Australia’s foreign minister has accused China of using the anxiety around the pandemic to undermine Western democracies by spreading disinformation online, prompting China to accuse Australia of disinformation.



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Merkel Throws Her Support Behind Radical European Recovery Plan

This article by Ania Nussbaum and Arne Delfs for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a pitch for a radical recovery proposal for the virus-ravaged European Union and warned her cohorts that there was no time to lose.

Her words carried extra weigh, spoken in person on Monday alongside Emmanuel Macron. The French president is the other heavyweight in the euro. He is a long-term advocate of ever-closer collaboration for a common position on international relations and a joint fiscal policy.

Germany has always been the more reluctant partner on both fronts, but there are signs the famously cautious Merkel is letting up.

“Talks won’t fail because of us,” Merkel told reporters in Meseberg, Germany. “But there will be no new proposal.”

Merkel’s exhortation comes before all 27 EU members gather in Brussels on July 17 to discuss a stimulus package that would see the bloc issue 750 billion euros ($845 billion) in joint debt and make 500 billion euros of that in grants to the nations most affected by the coronavirus crisis.

The plan, which needs the unanimous approval of all EU members, seeks to tackle divergences in the region’s internal market that have widened as a result of the uneven impact of the outbreak and differing national responses.



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Befuddled by the Bull? The Primacy of Free Liquidity and Risk-Love

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch which may be of interest. Here is a section:



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Email of the day - on island reversals

Looking at the daily charts of the Dow Jones and S&P there appears to be potential "island reversals". Do these "islands" carry much weight in charting terms?



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The RBC Macroscope

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from RBC which may be of interest. Here is a section:



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U.K. Rejects Mooted Brexit Compromise in Setback to EU Talks

This article by Joe Mayes for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“@DavidGHFrost
6/6 Finally, I want to be clear that the Government will not agree to ideas like the one currently circulating giving the EU a new right to retaliate with tariffs if we chose to make laws suiting our interests.We could not leave ourselves open to such unforeseeable economic risk.”

Frost’s comments come ahead of a fresh round of talks with the EU next week. The two sides are trying to break an impasse that risks a damaging rupture at the end of this year. Without a trade accord, Britain and the EU would default to trading on World Trade Organization terms from Jan 1. 2021, meaning steep tariffs and an economic shock.

A key sticking point in the talks has been the EU’s demand that the U.K. commits to tracking the bloc’s rules in areas such as environmental and labor protections and state aid, for fear that Britain would become a competitor on its doorstep. The British government sees the request as inconsistent with the principle of sovereignty that it argues was at the core of the vote for Brexit.

“This needs to be a real negotiation and some of the EU’s unrealistic positions will have to change if we are to move forward,” Frost said. “U.K. sovereignty, over our laws, our courts, or our fishing waters, is of course not up for discussion.”



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Forecasting the US elections

This article from the Economist may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.



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