David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Precious Metals / Commodities

    Email of the day on my leveraged gold positions

    I was interested to see today that gold hit just below $1800 and your average buying price so far is at that level. You have had bids in the market for some time ...I wondered if they have been triggered with the $200 drop in the gold price in the last month. It feels like March 2020 when gold was swept up in the stock market declines in the rush to cash. Are we seeing a repeat now...in which case gold could make a swift recovery like it did then perhaps?

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    Wheat Prices Spike as US Sees War, Adverse Weather Hurting Crops

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    From war to extreme weather, the world’s wheat crops are under threat, a view that’s being bolstered by a US report.

    Production in Ukraine, one of the biggest growers, will fall by one-third compared to last year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast. Other major producers are battling drought, floods and heatwaves. In all, global stockpiles in the coming season will dwindle to a six-year low. 

    The smaller wheat harvests and a slow start to the US planting season is risking more food inflation ahead. Hunger is already on the rise in many parts of the globe.

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    Dollar Won't Be Haven Currency of Choice for Long

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    This in turn takes us to an interesting observation by George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of currency research, who says that “we are perhaps now reaching the tipping point where further financial conditions tightening will start to place more severe headwinds to how much more we can reprice the Fed.” This will result in the dollar becoming less responsive to risk-off due to more dovish implications for the Fed path. And while it’s still early stages, Saravelos argues that “the market is starting to behave as if we may be approaching this tipping point.”

    Now, even if inflation does peak this year, that won’t mean central banks will exit their tightening path, but will adjust it accordingly. Just look at the Bank of England’s latest forward guidance and the divide within the voting committee. At the same time, and if we talk stagflation or recession, we should consider that the yen may attract haven flows once again given its low inflationary readings, Japan’s current surplus and so forth.

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    Rba Rate Rise Knocks the Wind Out of ASX

    This article from the Sydney Morning Herald may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full: 

    The Australian sharemarket hit a downdraft when the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by a surprisingly large 25 basis points yesterday, as the markets digested the implications of rising debt costs.

    The ASX 200 dropped 0.4 per cent, or 30.8 points to close at 7316.2 with tech stocks, the health care and industrials the only sectors to close in the black. Miners like BHP, Fortescue and Rio sunk after iron ore prices slumped overnight. Fortescue led the declines with a 4.8 per cent share price drop and Rio Tinto closed 1.5 per cent lower.

    Finance stocks also took a hit with ratings agency Standard & Poor's saying home loan arrears are likely to drift up from historically low levels following yesterday's increase in interest rates.

    Russel Chesler, head of investments at VanEck, said higher credit costs are likely to dent big bank profits.

    "Locally, we are likely to see the big banks come under pressure in the month ahead as higher rates dent the banks' earnings from mortgages and bad debts could jump on higher credit costs." He expects companies which act like an inflation hedge, like gold and infrastructure, are likely to outperform. And despite the drop yesterday, rising commodity prices are expected to support the big miners through 2022.

    "In this environment, with inflation running hot and interest rates rising, companies, including cyclical stocks, that can increase their prices and keep their customers at the same time, are likely to outperform," he said.

    In other news, the chief executives of Australia's two largest private employers, Woolworths and Wesfarmers have thrown their support behind an increase in workers' wages amid persistently rising inflation and a tightening labour market.

    There was also good news about the pandemic recovery, Transurban chief executive Scott Charlton said toll-road traffic has fully rebounded in Australia and is almost at normal levels in the US as businesses and consumers emerge from the pandemic.

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    Bank of Russia Rejects Ruble-Gold Peg Idea, Differs With Kremlin

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:

    Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina dismissed the idea of pegging the ruble to gold after the Kremlin said it was a proposal under consideration.

    “It is not being discussed in any way,” Nabiullina told reporters at a briefing Friday after the central bank cut the key interest rate by 300 basis points. The ruble must continue to have a floating exchange rate, she said, though volatility of the currency will be higher amid capital controls imposed after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.

    Her comment appeared to contradict President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, who said earlier Friday that “this question is now being discussed.” Peskov pointed to comments by Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev on linking the currency to gold and other commodities in an interview with a state-run newspaper this week, while offering no further details.

    Unprecedented sanctions on Russia’s central bank over the invasion of Ukraine deprived it of access to about half of its holdings, leaving it in possession of only gold and yuan. Before the war, Putin repeatedly argued that Russia needs to cut dependence on the dollar as a global reserve currency.

    Speculation has been rife that sanctions on Russia may herald a far-reaching shift that could bolster bullion. Analysts like Credit Suisse Group AG’s Zoltan Pozsar predict that the seizure of the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves will result in a new monetary paradigm where gold plays a greater role.

    Speaking with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Patrushev said experts are examining proposals to back the ruble’s value with gold and other goods as part of an alternative system of finance that guarantees a measure of sovereignty and reduces the link to the dollar.

    Continuing a multi-year effort to reduce exposure to the U.S. currency, the Russian central bank cut the share of dollars in reserves to 10.9% as of Jan. 1 from from 21.2% a year earlier. Gold was down slightly at 21.5%.

    Until the invasion of Ukraine forced Nabiullina to enact capital controls, the ruble was allowed to trade freely since 2014, its value determined by the market. 

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    GS, Doosan and Samsung to Cooperate in SMR Power Plant Business

    This article from BusinessKorea may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    A signing ceremony was held at GS Energy Headquarters in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, on April 26 with the presence of representatives from the four companies. They included GS Energy president Huh Yong-soo, Doosan Enerbility vice president Na Gi-yong, Samsung C&T vice president Lee Byung-soo, GS Energy vice president Kim Seong-won, and NuScale Power president John Hopkins.

    NuScale’s SMR is the only one of its kind to receive design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is regarded as the most advanced SMR in the world. It can be used for hydrogen production, seawater desalination, and heat supply to industrial complexes in addition to electricity generation.

    The MOU is expected to generate huge synergies by combining NuScale’s SMR technology, GS Group’s power plant operation capabilities, Doosan Enerbility’s expertise in nuclear power plant equipment production, and Samsung C&T’s power plant construction capabilities.

    A power plant using NuScale SMRs will be built and put into commercial operation in Idaho of the United States in 2029.

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    Email of the day on industrial metals miners

    “All the big mining companies coming down 20-25 pct in 4 to 5 days. pretty scary to me. what am I missing? Beside talk about the Fed raising interest rates in May with 0,5 pct and a growth scare or the lockdowns in China? Any other reasons? Should we now buy the miners again with the positive future ahead? Gold and copper also look attractive now. your opinion please”

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    Russia to Halt Gas to Poland on Wednesday in Major Escalation

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Moscow appears to be making good on a threat to halt gas supplies to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the crucial fuel in rubles. Europe has said that doing so would breach sanctions and strengthen Russia’s hand. Poland has been particularly vociferous in its criticism of Russia and has refused to comply with the new terms.

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    Next Grocery Shock Awaits as Food Giants Face Cooking Oil Risks

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The move by Indonesia, which accounts for a third of global edible oil exports, will add to turmoil facing emerging markets from Sri Lanka to Egypt and Tunisia. Even developed countries could see sharp rises in supermarket prices.

    Palm oil is one of the most versatile staples, used in thousands of products from food to personal care items to biofuels. Prices of cooking oils have been on a tear due to drought and labor shortages. Then the war in Ukraine roiled trade of about 80% of global sunflower oil exports, boosting demand for alternatives like palm and soybean oil and sending prices to record highs. 

    Indonesia’s ban applies to exports of RBD palm olein, a higher value product that has been processed. Exports of crude palm oil and RBD palm oil will still be allowed, according to people familiar with the matter. RBD olein accounts for 30% to 40% of Indonesia’s total palm oil exports. 

    The move could increase costs for packaged food producers such as Nestle, Mondelez International and Unilever. Nestle declined to comment, while the other companies didn’t respond to a request for comment. It may also force governments to choose between using vegetable oils for food or biofuels. 

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    Email of the day on commodity prices

    if we are at peak inflation now, as some suggest, do you believe it's time up for the commodity trade? Freeport, Anglo, Alcoa has vicious pull backs this week from highs, with some of those having key week reversals. If you've made money, take shelter and come back another day, or stick it out because the longer-term structural story is intact?

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