David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Precious Metals / Commodities

    Solar ETF Drops Most in Four Months as China Rattles Sector

    This note by Michael Bellusci for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:

    Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) falls as much as 6.5% intraday, the most since May 4, amid growing investor jitters about China’s real estate crackdown potentially sparking a financial contagion. 

    Among individual stocks, JinkoSolar down as much as 10.6% during the session, Beam Global -9%, Daqo New Energy -10%, First Solar-9.3%, Canadian Solar -7.8%

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    Email of the day - on the copper/silver ratio:

    The price of copper has been rising for some time now, while the price of silver, an important industrial metal now is languishing at the bottom of its recent trading range. Would there be any merit in examining a long-term historical chart of the ratio of copper to silver?

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    Email of the day on investing for inflation:

    Dear Eoin, Many thanks for your comment on inflation as a solution for the massive public debts. In these circumstances how would you structure your portfolio? In which sectors would you invest your funds?

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    How China's Pollution Fight Is Roiling Commodities

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The growing importance of the environment in Beijing’s policy mix has left commodities markets caught between decelerations in both supply and demand. Iron ore prices more than halved between mid-May and mid-September as the steel production limits slashed demand for the steel-making ingredient. Aluminum, meanwhile, has jumped 46% so far this year as Chinese production -- more than half the world’s total --  of the energy-intensive metal is cut. The curbs on coal are particularly eye-catching because China has been wrestling with an unprecedented spike in the cost of the fuel. Coal futures in Zhengzhou hit a record in September, defying what should be a seasonal slowdown in demand. Any further cutbacks on output would run counter to the government’s pledges to stabilize prices by encouraging more domestic supply. It also would make another round of power rationing for industry more likely. Since coal is the major energy source in China for the production of fertilizer, its price has also soared.

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    Priciest Food Since 1970s Is a Big Challenge for Governments

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Adjusted for inflation and annualized, costs are already higher now than for almost anytime in the past six decades, according FAO data. Indeed, it’s now harder to afford food than it was during the 2011 protests in the Middle East that led to the overthrow of leaders in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, said Alastair Smith, senior teaching fellow in global sustainable development at Warwick University in the U.K.

    “Food is more expensive today than it has been for the vast majority of modern recorded history,” he said.

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    Shanghai Copper Stockpiles at Lowest in a Decade, Nickel Jumps

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:  

    Copper inventories extend a drop to the lowest level in almost 10 years, while aluminum holdings also fell and nickel inventories climbed, according to weekly data from Shanghai Futures Exchanges.

    Copper -11% to 61,838 tons, lowest since Dec. 2011
    Aluminum -1.6% to 228,529 tons, lowest since Dec.
    Lead +3.3% to record 204,008 tons
    Nickel +45% to 8,608 tons, following a more than 30% gain the previous week

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    Email of the day - on candlestick patterns

    Dear Eoin Your monthly chart of gold shows a perfect and quite rare "Dragonfly Doji" candlestick pattern. With your considerable charting knowledge would you regard this as a bullish technical signal?

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    Email of the day on food price inflation and political polarisation

    I did notice the surge in fresh fish prices for the past 6 months. For example, dover soles (300-400g size) had been in the 20-25 eur/kg (with an average at +/-23 eur) for +/- 15 years with a few peaks at 30 eur and dips at 18 eur; for the past 6 months, I have never seen the price below 30 euros and it has averaged 35-37eur with peaks at 40+ eur. I wonder whether it has to do with Brexit and therefore less fish available on the EU market. In any case all fish prices have substantially increased (depending on the species 40-70%); the cost of milk, pasta, etc. has also increased, not talking about gasoline or real estate.

    (Here in Luxembourg, I have been made aware that a new project outside the city -at +/- 10 km to the north- a new residential development to be delivered in 2023 has prices at 20.000 euros/sq m for flats of 65-75 sq m) ... [Ed. c.€1890/sqft]

    Wages are not following, and taxes are globally up with budgets still showing too large deficits. This will fuel resentment and populism, maybe revolts when people have nothing left to lose (the situation is dire in France and the split within the have and have nots deepening by the day compounded by and immigration - whether with a French ID or not - separatism being more evident by the day. Wages are not following.

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