David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Precious Metals / Commodities

    Sony Shocks CES 2020 With Unveiling of Electric Car

    This article by Michael Cogley for the Telegraph may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Tech giant Sony shocked attendees at this year’s CES by unveiling a new electric car.

    The Japanese company, which is best known for its PlayStation games consoles and high-end televisions, revealed the Vision S concept saloon.

    The prototype boasts 33 sensors to monitor inside and outside of the car, as well as an ultra-wide monitor which will be used for entertainment and information purposes.

    Sony chief executive Kenichiro Yoshida said that cars will be redefined as a “new entertainment space”.

    “To deepen our understanding of cars in terms of their design and technologies we gave a shape to our vision,” Mr Yoshida told the tech conference in Las Vegas.

    “This prototype embodies our commitment to the future of mobility and contains an array of Sony technologies.”

    The new concept car also features “360 reality audio”, which Mr Yoshida says will give users an “immersive experience”.

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    U.S. Strike Ordered by Trump Kills Key Iranian Military Leader in Baghdad

    This article from the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi condemned the targeted killing as a violation of the terms underpinning the U.S. troop presence in the country.

    Mr. Abdul-Mahdi said he had submitted a formal request for parliament to convene in order to adopt necessary measures “to protect Iraq’s dignity and sovereignty.” He didn’t say what those measures would be.

    The killing of the two men is likely to mark the beginning of a dangerous new chapter in the rivalry between the U.S. and Iran, which escalated after supporters of an Iran-backed Shiite militia attempted to storm the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad earlier this week. Mr. Mohandes was deputy leader of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group that led the embassy attack.

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    Gold Rally Not Over Yet and May Reach $1,700 in 2021, RBC Says

    This article by Aoyon Ashraf for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:

    The price of gold could rally another 11% over the next two years, tacking on to last year’s 19% gain, according to RBC Capital Markets.

    Gold prices have historically been volatile and may see some fluctuations in 2020 and 2021 on quarterly basis. On a yearly basis, however, the trajectory is likely higher, the bank’s strategists led by Christopher Louney wrote in a note.

    RBC is expecting an average gold price of $1,552 per ounce in 2020, with a bear-case of $1,437 per ounce and bull-case of $1,613 per ounce. By 2021, they forecast the average price to reach $1,625 per ounce with a bull-case of as much as $1,700 per ounce.

    Meanwhile, the Street is forecasting a much dimmer outlook. The median estimate for 2020 is $1,532 per ounce and $1,561 per ounce for 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Spot
    gold is currently at $1,528 per ounce.

    The bullion, last year, was able to seal its best year since 2010 due to loose global monetary policy, a buying spree from central banks, the U.S.-China trade dispute and other geopolitical unrest. The rally marked a positive shift in investor attitude toward gold, which is among the main reasons why RBC is bullish on the precious metal. “Sentiment almost always plays an outsized role for gold compared to other asset classes given its unique nature,” the strategists wrote.
     

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    China Approves New GMO Soybeans in Positive Sign Amid U.S. Talks

    This article from Bloomberg News may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    China approved a new strain of genetically modified soybeans developed by a U.S. company, a move that could bolster looming trade talks.

    The variety approved for import is an insect-resistant soybean from Dow AgroSciences LLC, according to a list published by China’s agriculture ministry on Monday. The nation also approved a new type of GMO papaya and renewed permits for 10 crop varieties, including corn and canola.

    China and the U.S. are gearing up to sign the first phase of a trade deal, with the South China Morning Post reporting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to lead a delegation to Washington on Jan. 4. The countries agreed to speed up the approval process for imports of GMO crops as part of efforts to boost bilateral trade.

    “The news helps confirm China’s opening of its market to U.S. GMO products and dropping additional non-tariff barriers,“ said John Payne, senior futures and options broker at Daniels Trading in Chicago.

    GMO crops have been a source of tension with the U.S. arguing China’s stance isn’t based on science and has been used as a non-tariff barrier. In 2013, China rejected several cargoes of corn and distillers dried grain from the U.S. due to the presence of a GMO variety that took the Asia nation almost five years to approve, said Darin Friedrichs, a senior analyst at INTL FCStone in China.
     

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    Hong Kong Imports of Gold Coins From China Jump on Haven Demand

    This article by Ranjeetha Pakiam for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Hong Kong’s purchases of gold coins from China surged last month as demand for haven assets soared amid the ongoing social unrest.

    Imports of coins jumped to 3,246.5 kilograms in November from 14 kilograms a month earlier, according to data from the city’s Census and Statistics Department obtained by email.

    “The import of gold coins by Hong Kong shows that its citizens are worried about the situation in Hong Kong and prefer to have gold coins as safe haven,” said Georgette Boele, senior FX and precious metals strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV.

    The increasingly violent pro-democracy protests have undermined Hong Kong’s economy, discouraging tourists from visiting and slashing retail sales. Gold demand typically strengthens ahead of the Lunar New Year, which will fall in late January.

    Data from the department also showed that total exports of gold from Hong Kong to China continued their decline from a peak in 2013. Figures for November showed shipments dropped to 5,717 kilograms from 14,896 kilograms in October. Hong Kong’s total imports from China were 5,824.5 kilograms, bolstered by the surge in gold coin purchases, which meant Hong Kong had net imports of gold from China for the first time since January 2011.

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    Wheat Could Be Surprise Winner of the U.S.-China Trade Deal -

    This article by Isis Almeida and Michael Hirtzer for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “The potential that China could secure an additional 5 to 6 million tons of world wheat annually is underpinning Chicago Board of Trade wheat,” Chicago-based consultant AgResource Co. said in a report Thursday.

    Wheat traders expect China will soon release the quota, according to AgResource, and prices are already reacting. On Friday, futures for March delivery rose as much as 2.2% to $5.61 a bushel in Chicago, the highest for a most-active contract since August 2018. Futures traded in Paris reached the highest since June.

    If Chinese purchases were to reach the quota mark of 9.6-million metric tons, that would represent a big jump in demand. In the six years through 2017, buying has averaged less than 50% of the allotment.

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    A Major Shipping Change Is Coming, and So Are Higher Fuel Prices

    This article by Firat Kayakiran, Jack Wittels, and Rachel Graham for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    It’s important to remember that oil refineries and shipping companies spent billions getting ready.

    Some shipowners installed scrubbers, units that can cost several million dollars each and allow carriers to remove sulfur from fuel as it’s burnt. This enables them to keep using today’s cheaper product. Likewise, refineries have invested in technology to convert sulfur-rich crude into higher-quality fuels.

    For compliant companies, cheating by others is a problem. Yet there could be non-compliance, at least initially. Industry estimates are that something like 10%-15% of the fleet won’t comply with the rules at the start.

    Not every country in the world signed up to the regulations, including some large coastal states with significant refining capacity. Even among those that did, not all look likely to start with strict enforcement. There’s also a disparity between what penalties will be imposed from one nation to the next.

    South Africa, which sits on a shipping lane connecting eastern and western hemispheres, doesn’t yet have the domestic laws in place to punish non-compliant vessels. The United Arab Emirates, a vital refueling hub in the Middle East, has pledged to avoid draconian enforcement.

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    Fertilizer Rebound Depends on Break From Crummy U.S. Weather

    This article by Ashley Robinson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “We’re going to get demand improvement,” Jonas Oxgaard, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in New York, said in a phone interview. “If the only thing we’re seeing is normalization, so we go back to the trend line, that’s still a pretty good outcome.”

    Fertilizer prices may ease in 2020 as new global sources of supply emerge. EuroChem Group AG and OCP Group are expected to boost potash output, and 4 million metric tons of urea capacity are forecast to come online, Maxwell of Green Markets said.

    Prices dropped in 2019 in tandem with lower costs for natural gas and Chinese coal, benefiting producers including CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Sinochem.

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    Gundlach Sees Bad News for Treasury Bulls in This Metals Ratio

    This article by Katherine Greifeld for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Rallying copper tends to indicate demand for home-building and other industrial inputs -- all signs of a reasonably strong economy, a message reinforced by range-bound gold prices, according to the billionaire bond manager. The gauge has worked “phenomenally well” as a short-term predictor of where Treasury yields are headed, Gundlach said.

    “It’s one of the best indicators for near-term movement -- for the next month or next couple of months -- for 10-year Treasury yields,” Gundlach said in a phone interview. “It’s remarkable how well it’s worked and as time goes by, I feel more and more inclined to follow it and act on it.”

    He said in September that markets had likely seen the low of the year in yields after the 10-year rate plunged to 1.43% that month, the lowest since 2016. So far that’s panned out.

    Bond strategists largely see the 10-year Treasury yield struggling to breach 2% in 2020. On the bullish side, Citigroup Inc. predicts the rate will hit a record low of 1.25% next year, and Societe Generale predicts 1.2%.

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    Gold M&A Spree Is All About Companies With One Big Deposit

    This article by Elena Mazneva and Thomas Biesheuvel for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    “If there were no issues with these mines they probably would have been taken out a long time ago, or even before they came into production,” said James Bell, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “It gives the mid-tier miners an opportunity to get hold of large assets.”

    There has been constant talk about more deals in the past year after Newmont Mining Corp.’s $10 billion acquisition of Goldcorp Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp.’s $5.4 billion takeover of Randgold Resources Ltd.

    Takeover targets being mentioned include Pretium Resources Inc. and TMAC Resources Inc., which mine in Canada, said Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer of money manager Sprott Inc. Torex Gold Resources Inc., which operates in Mexico, has also been touted as a potential target, he said.

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