David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - Technology

    Capitulation

    Thanks to a subscriber for this portion of a note from JPMorgan:

    the bottom this time won't be a capitulatory puke, but more likely consistent selling which fades as it burns out, to wit:

    ... signs of a market bottom are unlikely to resemble traditional "capitulation" that’s played out in the last few years. Why? Because traditional capitulation is typically marked by a quick de-grossing by hedge funds + systematic macro strategies, where positioning is already light. Instead, the next leg of de-risking is likely to be more gradual, coming from asset allocators/real money/retail and is therefore likely slower to play out, making a precise bottom more difficult to call.

    from a more tactical (i.e. very near term) standpoint, the bank writes that there are multiple metrics that suggest we could be closer to a bounce than before, including:

    The magnitude of the drawdown in net and gross exposures (-33% for net and - 30% for gross) in N. America among L/S funds is now similar to the early 2016 and March 2020 declines

    Retail flows in single-stocks have been very negative over the past 3 days, which has generally coincided with short-term lows over the past 6 months.

    The drawdown in “risky” factors (e.g. high vol, small cap, low profitability) is one of the most extreme of the past 20+ years and the S&P has rallied over the following 1-3 months post hitting similar extremes

    Buying of Defensives and selling of Cyclicals is also one of the most extreme with Staples vs. Discretionary in particular looking stretched

    Read entire article

    Coinbase Gives $256 Billion Reminder About Agonies of Bankruptcy

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:  

    Coinbase Global Inc., like the rest of the cryptocurrency market, is having a really tough week. Not filing-for-bankruptcy bad, but the biggest US crypto exchange did just mention the B-word in a regulatory filing, giving its customers a painful reminder of how bad things could get for them if Coinbase ever does get seriously distressed.

    In its quarterly report, Coinbase added a risk disclosure: if the company were to file for bankruptcy, the court might treat customer assets that the exchange is custodian for -- their Bitcoin, Dogecoin or whatever -- as Coinbase’s assets. And they’d be at the back of the line for repayment, forcing normal people, unaccustomed to the ins and outs of federal bankruptcy court, to claw back their money along with everybody else owed money by the exchange.

    It’s a huge amount at stake. Coinbase was custodian for $256 billion of customer money on March 31, according to the filing.

    Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong quickly took to Twitter to elaborate, saying the company is not at risk of going bankrupt and that users’ funds are safe.

    Read entire article

    Dollar Won't Be Haven Currency of Choice for Long

    This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    This in turn takes us to an interesting observation by George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank AG’s global head of currency research, who says that “we are perhaps now reaching the tipping point where further financial conditions tightening will start to place more severe headwinds to how much more we can reprice the Fed.” This will result in the dollar becoming less responsive to risk-off due to more dovish implications for the Fed path. And while it’s still early stages, Saravelos argues that “the market is starting to behave as if we may be approaching this tipping point.”

    Now, even if inflation does peak this year, that won’t mean central banks will exit their tightening path, but will adjust it accordingly. Just look at the Bank of England’s latest forward guidance and the divide within the voting committee. At the same time, and if we talk stagflation or recession, we should consider that the yen may attract haven flows once again given its low inflationary readings, Japan’s current surplus and so forth.

    Read entire article

    TerraUSD's Struggles Are a Concern for All Markets

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Much more important, if TerraUSD fails it will be a blow to the hopes of many traditional financial institutions that rely on liquidity to maintain stability. That includes central banks, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, derivatives clearinghouses, securities dealers and many others.

    TerraUSD is an “algorithmic stablecoin,” meaning it attempts to maintain a $1 market price via an algorithm rather than traditional methods such as backing each token with an actual dollar. TerraUSD can be exchanged for $1 worth of another cryptocurrency, in this case Luna. Therefore, if the price of TerraUSD deviates from $1, arbitragers should force it back.

    The Federal Reserve, although it doesn’t officially target the value of the dollar, can use a similar strategy if it wants to influence the currency’s value. If the value of the dollar falls either in terms of purchasing power or foreign-exchange rates, the Fed’s two main policy responses are to raise interest rates to make the dollar more attractive to hold, or to sell assets to soak up dollars, reducing the supply, and pushing up the price. TerraUSD uses mainly the second strategy, selling Luna to reduce the supply of TerraUSD.

    The strategy relies on there being a liquid market for the asset being sold — mainly US Treasury securities for the Fed and Luna for TerraUSD. Unfortunately for the Fed, if the dollar’s value is falling, investors may not be enthusiastic about buying Treasuries, which pay off in future dollars and whose perceived credit may be impaired if too many have to be sold to soak up excess currency. TerraUSD has the same issue, the value of Luna is tied to the success of the Terra suite of products, which would be impaired by TerraUSD’s collapse

    Read entire article

    In the Long Run, These Equity Losses Barely Register

    This article from Bloomberg highlights the philosophical attitude being adopted following a couple of days of rather extreme volatility. Here is a section:

    A momentous week has ended with a thud rather than a bang (at least on the data front) as the U.S. employment numbers came out broadly in-line with expectations. To be sure, there were some notable features of the data -- a drop in both household employment and labor participation, though perhaps that was driven by the timing of Good Friday, which fell during the survey week. 

    You can cherry-pick whatever you like from the figures to support your pre-existing view, so at this point it’s hard to say that they change much of anything. For now, the growth picture remains strong enough to support the policy trajectory that’s currently priced into rates markets. That, in turn, should continue to apply pressure to equities, regardless of how “cheap” they may seem.

    From a macro perspective, the issue to focus on has clearly rotated from inflation to growth. Pretty much everyone understands that base effects will drive y/y CPI and PCE figures lower, but the run-rate of inflation will remain high enough for central banks to keep worrying ... and keep (or start) tightening. That policy trajectory will change when the growth outlook deteriorates significantly enough that demand looks more correctly aligned with supply. So that’s what we’ll be watching for.

    While you can point to the 353k drop in household employment as a signal that the economy is weakening, that’s a pretty tenuous hook upon which to hang your hat at this point -- particularly given that household employment growth had comfortably outstripped the establishment survey over the prior six months. Moreover, the drop in the participation rate suggests the household figure may well have been a supply, rather than demand, issue -- which is problematic if the relatively elevated level of wages can still not attract fresh workers.

    Read entire article

    Email of the day on the cumulative effect on interest rate hikes

    I seem to remember many years ago David saying that the time to be wary of share markets is after the third interest rate rise. Is this accurate and, if so, is it a relevant indicator for us now?

    Read entire article

    GS, Doosan and Samsung to Cooperate in SMR Power Plant Business

    This article from BusinessKorea may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    A signing ceremony was held at GS Energy Headquarters in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, on April 26 with the presence of representatives from the four companies. They included GS Energy president Huh Yong-soo, Doosan Enerbility vice president Na Gi-yong, Samsung C&T vice president Lee Byung-soo, GS Energy vice president Kim Seong-won, and NuScale Power president John Hopkins.

    NuScale’s SMR is the only one of its kind to receive design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is regarded as the most advanced SMR in the world. It can be used for hydrogen production, seawater desalination, and heat supply to industrial complexes in addition to electricity generation.

    The MOU is expected to generate huge synergies by combining NuScale’s SMR technology, GS Group’s power plant operation capabilities, Doosan Enerbility’s expertise in nuclear power plant equipment production, and Samsung C&T’s power plant construction capabilities.

    A power plant using NuScale SMRs will be built and put into commercial operation in Idaho of the United States in 2029.

    Read entire article

    Crypto Mortgages Let Homebuyers Keep Bitcoin, Pay Down Nothing

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Digital wealth meant little to banks when it came to a mortgage. And Burniske, 63, wanted to keep his coins rather than trade them for dollars. 

    “If you cash out, you have to pay sizable tax and you’re leaving a lot of upside on the table because you’re getting out early,” he said.

    Then came an option that wasn’t available when Burniske found the properties late last year: a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage secured by part of his Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings. He nailed down the loan from Milo Credit, a Miami-based startup that’s seeking to tap into the burgeoning pool of crypto loyalists who want to diversify their wealth while hanging on to their tokens.

    Crypto mortgages are the latest example of the deepening role of digital coins in the U.S. real estate market, with property buyers and lenders alike embracing the volatile currencies to underpin deals for hard assets. Last year, Fannie Mae started allowing borrowers to use crypto for their down payments. New buildings going up in tech hot spots like Miami are accepting digital tokens for deposits on condos. A house in Tampa, Florida, even sold as an NFT earlier this year. 

    Read entire article

    SoftBank Cuts Back Spending, Leaving Startups Desperate for Cash

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Hurt by plunging tech valuations, SoftBank is walking away from some of its loss-making portfolio firms to comply with stricter investment criteria, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter was not public. Many of the two Vision Funds’ portfolio of 300-plus companies are loss-making.

    The Japanese investment firm offered to contribute money if Light could find another investor to lead the next fundraising round, one of the people said. But with its biggest backer offering only a token amount, other investors were wary about stepping in, the person said. The Redwood City, California-based startup has hired a consulting firm to explore options, including winding down operations.

    “Their purse strings are tight as they have ever been,” the person said.

    A Vision Fund spokesman and Light Chief Executive Officer Dave Grannan declined to comment. 

    The adoption of prudence at SoftBank’s Vision Fund -- which rewrote the rules of venture capital by deploying billions of dollars from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi into startups -- is an about-face from its past freewheeling largess. 

    For years, SoftBank’s founder and Chief Executive Officer Masayoshi Son persuaded startup founders to accept Vision Fund money by encouraging them to think bigger and promising continued support to help them expand. He would often invest more money than founders were looking for if they would try to accelerate growth.

    Before approving the investment in Light, the billionaire made clear to Grannan that his interest was predicated on the startup’s ability to adapt its depth-sensing imaging technology for self-driving cars -- something Light’s founders never considered before.

    Read entire article

    Stripe Teams Up With Twitter in Renewed Crypto Payments Push

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The move is the latest manifestation of Stripe’s renewed interest in crypto after rivals such as Block Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc. and Checkout.com made inroads in the industry. Stripe suspended support for Bitcoin payments in 2018, but began recruiting crypto talent last year and in March said it was helping digital-asset exchanges FTX and Blockchain.com with online payments and customer verification. 

    Creators on Twitter will be able to receive payments initially in the stablecoin USD Coin. The payouts across the Stripe Connect platform will be made using Polygon, a blockchain network designed to make Ethereum faster and easier to use. Stripe said it chose Polygon because of its speed and low transaction fees.

    Read entire article