This note by Jeremy R. Cooke for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Yelp shares are down as much as 15%, the most since late March, on a risk-off day for the market; JMP (market perform) in a note Wednesday highlights worries that the local search site will continue to suffer from social distancing and stay-at-home mandates affecting its advertising base.
This article by Sarah Frier for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“If our employees are in a role and situation that enables them to work from home and they want to continue to do so forever, we will make that happen,” Twitter said in the post. “If not, our offices will be their warm and welcoming selves, with some additional precautions, when we feel it’s safe to return.”
The company has more than 35 offices worldwide, including in Paris, New York and Toronto.
“We’ve been very thoughtful in how we’ve approached this from the time we were one of the first companies to move to a work-from-home model,” Twitter said in a statement. “We’ll continue to be, and we’ll continue to put the safety of our people and communities first.”
Thanks for your very clear and objective commentaries at moment. It is good that you are looking beyond the current crisis and thinking about what investments are likely to do best over the longer term. I notice that you have been referring to point and figure charts more recently. Under what circumstances do you find it best to use these, rather than a 'standard' daily / weekly price chart? Also, what do you recommend using for box size / reversal as an unleveraged investor, taking a medium / long term view?
With respect to the second note, and knowing your own preference to stay with the "winners" and cut the "losers", at what point do you look to valuations and question the sky-high prices people are willing to pay for these "winners"? I personally have a tough time chasing stocks that have already run, but for now at least, they just keep going, proving highly frustrating!
I hope you and the family are handling the new normal? You certainly seem to, as there has been no decline in your daily's, in fact if anything they are like a good wine, getting better with age/experience.
I have recently checked all the Topix industrial indexes. Virtually all of them look like the majority of most world stock market indexes, except for two,
The Topix Telecommunication Index and the Topix Pharmaceutical Index.
They both compare more to the NASDAQ and one or two other stronger US indexes.
If you remember, late last year I sent you a list of Japanese 5G related companies, some of these are what my portfolio has consisted of most of this year. Many are performing in line with the NASDAQ, but when markets were selling off during March and April I added KDDI and DOCOMO to my list. I came across a DOCOMO white paper confirming their research into 6G!
Unfortunately, I do not have very much experience of the Pharma sector, except for the big names. So, if your collective could offer any ideas it would be much appreciated.
Thanking you in advance.
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley which may be of interest. Here is a section:
This article by Billy Bambrough for Forbes may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The bitcoin price lost more than 10% in a matter of minutes yesterday evening, dropping to lows of $8,100 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange before rebounding to settle around $8,600.
However, an outage on major U.S. bitcoin and crypto exchange Coinbase just after bitcoin's price plummet left many users unable to trade—the second time in less than a month Coinbase has buckled under stress.
"How many times do we have to say take your bitcoin off of Coinbase if you want to have access to it," Rachel Siegel, a bitcoin and cryptocurrency content creator, warned via Twitter, adding, "this is not the first time Coinbase has gone down and it surely will not be the last."
"Coinbase acting like the NYSE circuit breaking," joked Jason Williams, cofounder and partner at bitcoin and crypto hedge fund Morgan Creek Digital, suggesting that Coinbase outages could dampen spikes and dips in the bitcoin price.
This article by Mohamed A. El-Erian for Bloomberg echoes a common sentiment among institutional investors. Here is a section:
The rate of labor force dislocation, albeit distressing, appears to be moderating. The weekly 3 million jobless claims number is the lowest in the last seven weeks and less than half the worst level.
The report highlights the urgent and important policy priorities of dealing both with the implications of such a terrible shock to jobs and with ensuring that short-term problems don’t become long-term ones that are much harder to solve.
With markets focusing on the improvement in the “second derivative,” that is a reduction in the rate of labor force dislocation, U.S. stocks rose. This widens an already considerable decoupling from the real economy and will fuel the debates on Wall Street versus Main Street, companies versus people and the well-off versus the marginalized.
This article by Ray Dalio may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Then came World War I when warring countries ran enormous deficits that were funded by central banks’ printing and lending of money. During the war years gold was international money as international credit was lacking because trust was lacking. Then the war ended, and a new monetary order was created with gold and the winning countries’ currencies, which were tied to it, at the center of that new monetary order.
Still, in 1919-22 the printing of money and devaluations of several European currencies were required as an extension of the debt crises of those most indebted, especially those that lost World War I. As shown this led to the total extinction of the German mark and German mark debt in the 1920-23 period and big devaluations in other countries’ currencies including the winners of the war that also had debts that had to be devalued to create a new start.
With the debt, domestic political, and international geopolitical restructurings done, the 1920s was a boom period, which became a bubble that burst in 1929.
In 1930-45, 1) when the debt bubble burst that required central banks to print money and devalue it, and then 2) when the war debts had to increase to fund the war that required more printing of money and more devaluations.
At the end of the war, in 1944-45, the new monetary system that linked the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar was created, and the currencies and debts of Germany, Japan, Italy, and China (and a number of other countries) were quickly and totally destroyed while those of most winners of the war were slowly but still substantially depreciated. That monetary system stayed in place until the late 1960s.
This is an interesting review of Neil Ferguson's pandemic model. If true, it obviously raises some interesting questions about UK strategy. But the biggest issue for me is the way it exposes the gulf between technology specialists and political judgement. Our politicians may be ill-equipped to make good decisions in a world when so much is dependent on good data.
Thanks for great audios recently - much appreciated.
