How safe are government bonds?
David Fuller's view There is a wealth of information in the Barclays report for all students of the market. I remain a long-term bear of US Treasuries because today's historically low yields cannot last, unless Japanese-style deflation really does beckon for the USA. While this is possible, I maintain that it is a minority risk while Bernanke and Co continue to do everything in their considerable power to avoid deflation.
Two of Barclays Capital's headlines (slides 6&8) provide key reasons:
If the dollar's status is stable, the US can withstand significant fiscal deterioration
Increased euro sovereign risk is positive for US rates
Currently, the US Dollar Index (weekly & daily) is strengthening and US Treasury bond prices (weekly & daily) are temporarily granted 'safe haven' status as investors flee so-called 'risk assets' from gold to stock markets. It's a funny old world, isn't it? I would prefer to take my cue on shorting US long-dated Treasury's from the price action and it is too steady at the moment.